ETHBTC, 2023-06-20

Let's do the ETHBTC-THANG!

After entering the price-quotes of $BTC and $ETH from @osmosiszone, my SPREADSHEETSZORXEN! sez:

• swap 0.0153 $BTC

So, let's do that! 

I do the ETHBTC-thang!

There should be no surprises by now, eh?

• I withdraw 0.0153 $BTC from @TeamKujira Ghost lend

• I bridge the $BTC to @osmosiszone via Satellite

• I swap $BTC to $ETH on @osmosiszone 

• I bridge back the $ETH to @TeamKujira using IBC

Efficacy Analysis

I've been doing this for a wee bit, so, let's ask the question: is the ETHBTC-thang! working? And how can we know if it is?

The analysis is straightforward.

ETH-arb-side analysis

As the amounts of both $BTC and $ETH vary, let's see when $BTC is the same. Does the amount of $ETH change? If so, by how much?

The answer:

When $BTC is 0.1269-...ish, δ $ETH is POSITIVE 0.9219.

in 21 days.

ROI: 50%, annualized to 882% APR!!

What does the above (PT) analysis mean?

It means that simply by trading daily on the ETHBTC ratio-vs-EMA-20, I 'manifested' 0.92 $ETH, ... out of thin air.

😱😱😱

You can pack your bags and get out of town; I just don't care.

BTC-arb-side Analysis

Okay, it works on the $ETH-arb-side, how about on the $BTC-arb-side?

When $ETH is constant at 1.815-...ish, δ $BTC is...

0.0129

in 20 days.

ROI: 10%, annualized to 186% APR

It means same thing: I 'created' 0.0129 $BTC, simply by trading the ETHBTC ratio-vs.-the-EMA-20.

Wow!

To be quite fair, these analyses are premature and too overly encouraging, – they are not to be relied upon! – but! they do show a promising direction with this ETHBTC-THANG!

I will continue this experiment, and continue measuring as I go.

So, now I have 0.23 $ETH on @TeamKujira. WAT DO?

I put this liquidity to work. I mint 100 $USK from the $ETH on BLUE, then I place that $USK on FIN axlUSDC/USK as a buy-order.

This is the 無 arb (HOWTO)

I track my trades on the Trades-page.

As you see, I'm 無 arb'n $ETH quite a bit. That's totally fine by me: as the axlUSDC/USK ratio varies, I will make quite a bit back in $ETH as it's freed from collateral as I repay these $USK mints.

2016-10-26 Trading Top5s Analysis: X (U.S. Steel)

Markets Top5s Analysis for 2016-10-26

Created snapshot of top5s graph database; shunted to google drive

No scrape, because I fell asleep on the keyboard! So lame!

bubbles

So, looking at the reports on the stocks of the top5s today, nothing really jumped out at me, but in my history I saw X: U.S. Steel. 

It doesn't show up on the top5s all that often:

so let's look at that today.

geophf:writing geophf$ analyze X

Wrote analysis files for X

X SMA

X EMA

X Stochastic Oscillators

tweet 

2016-10-19 Trading Top5s (first-time) Analysis: V

Markets Top5s Analysis for 2016-10-19

Created snapshot of top5s graph database; shunted to google drive

scrape

2016-10-19

Mkt_Cap:GOOG,FB,GOOGL,V,SLB|INTC,PG,JNJ,AAPL,NVS

Price:GNC,MIME,PEGA,NUGT,X|CUZ,PBYI,IMPV,CREE,ACHC

Volume:ASH,KMI,FMSA,FTRPR,PBYI,SPY,SLV,ERIC,BBL,AXP

Updated /Users/geophf/Documents/OneDrive/work/1HaskellADay/Seer/data/top5s.csv with 2016-10-19 data

Updating graph DaaS at http://top5ssecurities.sb02.stations.graphenedb.com:24789

bubbles

let's analyze V (Visa) today (first time analysis):

geophf:writing geophf$ analyze V

Wrote analysis files for V

V SMA

V EMA

V Stochastic Oscillators

tweet 

2016-10-17 Trading Top5s Analysis: first-time for JNJ

Markets Top5s analysis for 2016-10-17

Created snapshot of top5s graph database; shunted to weekly save folder of google drive

scrape

2016-10-17

Mkt_Cap:TAP.A,PBR.A,JNJ,BABA,PBR|CHL,ITUB,AMZN,RDS.B,CVS

Price:TAP.A,MOG.B,EXAS,HAS,HL|CUZ,MKC.V,PSO,ITUB,NTNX

Volume:QQQ,SPY,NFLX,IWM,NUGT,SDRL,FTRPR,NOK,OAS,GDX

Updated /Users/geophf/Documents/OneDrive/work/1HaskellADay/Seer/data/top5s.csv with 2016-10-17 data

Updating graph DaaS at http://top5ssecurities.sb02.stations.graphenedb.com:24789

bubbles

*WHEW* A lot of big jumps in price: TAP.A (Molson Brewers), MOG.B??? (Moog) and then a big volume jump in GDX. TAP.A got an acquisition-go-ahead, and MOG.B performed slightly better than expectations. This is all very ... jumpy. GDX saw a lot of volume after the gold-sell-off last week, but will it keep going up?

Then, quietly, along comes JNJ (Johnson and Johnson)

let's analyze JNJ, which, surprise for me, is the first time I'm analyzing this stock.

geophf:writing geophf$ analyze jnj

Wrote analysis files for jnj

JNJ SMA

JNJ EMA

JNJ Stochastic Oscillators

tweet 

2016-10-07 Trading Top5s Analysis: FTR

Markets Top5s Analysis for 2016-10-07

Created snapshot of top5s graph database; shunted to google drive

scrape

2016-10-07

Mkt_Cap:TAP.A,PG,TSM,NEE,BRK.B|HON,PTR,LYG,BABA,TSN

Price:GPS,TAP.A,CHRS,ARRS,FTR|CUZ,CLVS,PKY,COUP,TSN

Volume:BAC,COTY,FTR,CHK,SIRI,TWTR,GE,FCX,AMD,VALE

Updated /Users/geophf/Documents/OneDrive/work/1HaskellADay/Seer/data/top5s.csv with 2016-10-07 data

Updating graph DaaS at http://top5ssecurities.sb02.stations.graphenedb.com:24789

bubbles

Yesterday, PTR was up, today it is down 2%. And, from out of nowhere, is FTR with a 6% rise. Only some Montley Fool articles in Sep/Oct time-frame saying how FTR is failing. No news today as to FTR's sharp increase.

let's analyze FTR

geophf:writing geophf$ analyze FTR

Wrote analysis files for FTR

FTR SMA

FTR EMA

FTR Stochastic Oscillators

tweet 

2016-09-26 Trading Top5s Analysis: UWTI

Markets Top5s Analysis for 2016-09-26

created snapshot of top5s graph database; shunted to weekly-save google drive folder

scrape

2016-09-26

Mkt_Cap:BUD,QVCB,AAPL,DCM,TWTR|GOOG,GOOGL,JPM,BABA,BAC

Price:GWPH,CHMT,IRCP,UWTI,QVCB|HIMX,ACOR,ACIA,BABY,SWHC

Volume:FTRPR,SPY,CUK,QQQ,VXX,HSBC,GOLD,TWTR,GLD,DB

Updated /Users/geophf/Documents/OneDrive/work/1HaskellADay/Seer/data/top5s.csv with 2016-09-26 data

Updating graph DaaS at http://top5ssecurities.sb02.stations.graphenedb.com:24789

bubbles

TWTR continued its rise on interest from a DSNY offer. QVCB came out of nowhere and had an impressive rise today (why?). And then there's UWTI up on crude oil prices and following a down day yesterday. What will it do tomorrow. My (weak) guess is that it will fall. We shall see, but I'm like: 'eh' with this one.

let's analyze UWTI

geophf:writing geophf$ analyze uwti

Wrote analysis files for uwti

UWTI SMA

UWTI EMA

UWTI Stochastic Oscillators

On second glance, I am glad to have analyzed UWTI. What I see here is a very regular up and down motion of share-price, ... except, of course, very recently. Is this a long-term behavior of this stock?

tweet 

2016-09-19 Trading Top5s Analysis: SRPT

Markets Top5s Analysis for 2016-09-19

Created snapshot of top5s graph database; shunted to google drive weekly folder

scrape

2016-09-19

Mkt_Cap:TSM,WFC,LFC,WFC-L,HSBC|AAPL,BABA,VZ,DD-B,XLF

Price:SRPT,TECD,BLOX,GSM,GLPG|XLF,CVRR,CYH,CHK,NH

Volume:CHK,BAC,SIRI,SRPT,AAPL,F,AMD,GPRO,BLOX,WFC

Updated /Users/geophf/Documents/OneDrive/work/1HaskellADay/Seer/data/top5s.csv with 2016-09-19 data

Updating graph DaaS at http://top5ssecurities.sb02.stations.graphenedb.com:24789

bubbles

Okay, here's something you don't see every day: an 80% jump in price.

let's analyze SRPT

geophf:writing geophf$ analyze SRPT

Wrote analysis files for SRPT

SRPT SMA

SRPT EMA

SRPT Stochastic Oscillators

tweet 

2016-09-13 Trading Top5s Analysis: LMCA

Markets top5s analysis for 2016-09-13

Created snapshot of top5s graph database; shunted to weekly folder of google drive

scrape

2016-09-13

Mkt_Cap:AAPL,LMCA,PYPL,AVGO,CCL|XOM,WFC,BRK.A,GOOGL,BRK.B

Price:LMCA,LMCK,VXX,ISIL,LAD|HK,GSAT,NUGT,DYN,GGB

Volume:BAC,CHK,SIRI,AAPL,WFC,ISIL,F,EEM,FCX,AMD

Updated /Users/geophf/Documents/OneDrive/work/1HaskellADay/Seer/data/top5s.csv with 2016-09-13 data

Updating graph DaaS at http://top5ssecurities.sb02.stations.graphenedb.com:24789

bubbles

A lot of activity for the Top5s, as you see, even though the sectors were generally down. LMCA soared: I suppose when you buy Formula 1 your stock sky-rockets.

let's analyze LMCA 

geophf:writing geophf$ analyze LMCA

Wrote analysis files for LMCA

LMCA SMA

LMCA EMA

LMCA Stochastic Oscillators

tweet