Let's talk about 2 arbs that I did this morning.
- one where I was stupid, ... and it worked.
- one where I was ... less stupid, and it worked.
I'm talking about the ampLUNA/LUNA arb and the stATOM/ATOM arb.
Both of these arbs involve @TeamKujira FIN and are multi-chain.
ampLUNA/LUNA
The one where I was stupid: ampLUNA/LUNA.
LUNA, like other tokens, took a hit last night. So, I checked the ampLUNA/LUNA board, and the checked the ampLUNA exchange rate. 1.01, or so I thought.
Funny how stLUNA isn't ampLUNA.
4:30 am arb'n, ya know? 🙄
On that mistaken assumption, I bought all the $LUNA I could on the LUNA/USK board, bridged that to Terra, then swapped to $ampLUNA (@astroport_fi had the best swap), bridged that back to @TeamKujira, REALIZED MY MISTAKE, BUT THEN! ...
When I sold the $ampLUNA for $USK and $LUNA for $USK, backpedalling from that mistake, what emerged?
Lo! and Behold! I netted a 12% ROI on that 'stupid'-arb.
- 2023-03-03: 90.3877 USK -> 101.5389 USK, 12.34% ROI
Critique/What happened
I don't know. Maybe God looked down upon me and smirked: "This idiot! Let me reward him for his stupid behavior, so next time he loses his shirt! AHA!"
Okay, really: arbs go South. As an arbiteur, you have to assess the situation and make the best trades.
The best trades were still selling $ampLUNA for $USK, then trading the remaining $ampLUNA to $LUNA.
$LUNA has so many trades, and from there I found a good $LUNA to $USK trade.
I could have gone LUNA->KUJI->USK, but it only had a $0.30-total advantange for that additional swap.
stATOM/ATOM
Now, for the arb where I was ... less (?) stupid.
This was much more straightforward for me. First thing, the stATOM/ATOM order book is live, and it's trading WAY off the stATOM exchange rate: ARBITRAGE!
So, I have $ATOM, but I don't have $stATOM. How do I get $stATOM? I transfer my $ATOM from @TeamKujira to @stride_zone then stake that $ATOM for $stATOM?
No: @osmosiszone has the better swap. ALWAYS check the swap-alternative, because, most times it's much better.
Then I transfer that $stATOM from @osmosiszone to @stride_zone to @TeamKujira, sell that $stATOM for $ATOM BELOW BID! so I confirm that.
Why 'below bid'? Because the asks and bids are so out of whack, I profit even by undercutting the markets.
SWEET!
For this stATOM/ATOM-arbitrage where I was ... less (?) stupid, I eventually 'bought' $ATOM at $11.45-pre, where it's current price is $11.971-per, this gives me an ROI of 4.35%.
Takeaway
For the stupid-arb, I had 11% ROI
For the 'less'-stupid-arb, I had 4% ROI???
Is the takeaway: "be stupid"?
I hope not.
The takeaway, here, is that arbs are (always) fluid. Keep your eyes open and have alternatives in play to make an arb gone South STILL successful.
