2016-10-20 Predictions and Scoring

Predictions and Scoring 2016-10-20

SCORING:

No scores, because no prior predictions.

But of course:

GOOGL went down after inexplicably (to me) showing up on the top5s

CUZ went down again

V went down (very slightly, not in-the-money down)

NFLX went up a bit more. I think we're at the end of its run. Or, to put my opinion to it: yes, they have more subscribers, but how do they grow their business outside of recruitment of paying viewers?

The energy stocks are still up: CHK

OAS

But the metals stocks are (very slightly) down NUGT and GDX.

Metals are just weird for me. I'm removing them from the watch-list.

I'm taking TAP.A and MOG.B off the watch-list, they aren't interesting anymore to me.

PREDICTIONS:

So if I had a gut-feel for some of the above, I should have just made those predictions and then paid the price at the time of scoring. So let's do that now.

UP: EBAY got an unnecessary hit for doing well? I think it will go up, in correction

DOWN: AXP will go down. It went up, like V, and I predict it will go down.

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2016-10-19 Predictions and Scoring

Predictions and Scoring 2016-10-19

Scoring:

Yesterday I predicted NUGT and GDX would go down:

NUGT up 8+% NO!

GDX up 2+% NO!

On the watch-list:

CHK up 3%

CUZ, still taking a beating, down 24%!!!

OAS up another 5%

TAP.A, no change?

MOG.B still up 1+%

JNJ, that rare top5er, now down 1% (I should have called this)

NFLX up another 2.5+%, the momentum of good news (should have called this one, too)

Adding to the watch-list PG and INTC ... they were down today, why?

PREDICTIONS: none. Nothing leaps out at me, so I'm staying in a watch mode for now.

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2016-10-18 Predictions and Scoring

Predictions and Scoring 2016-10-18

SCORING:

Yesterday I predicted MOG.B would go down today. NO! it had no change:

WATCHING: TAP.A, it had no change today

and GDX, up another 3+%

Interesting thing about GDX: NUGT and GDX are twinned in market movement, and:

NUGT was up 10+% in lock-step. Impressive.

ADDING TO WATCH-LIST: 

OAS

CUZ is taking a beating, several days in a row now.

JNJ was up yesterday, down today

and CHK is up... market correction?

PREDICTION: NUGT and GDX down, market correction, 2016-10-19

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2016-10-17 Predictions

Predictions and Scoring 2016-10-17

Lots of interesting stuff happening in the markets today.

Let's deconstruct it.

First up is GDX, the oddball (for me), in that it popped up on volume, which is unusual. Usually I'd then predict GDX would go down, but it's not a price-high. So I'm putting GDX on watch.

WATCH: GDX

Next up: MOG.B (Moog). Okay, so they exceeded expectations by having a good, not great quarter, so people bought it on that. I sense buyer's remorse.

PREDICTION: MOOG down 2016-10-18

Next: Molson (TAP.A) is up on acquisition-interest. TWTR did terribly here, but that was an entirely different proposition, but what happens when Molson is acquired? I see no clear direction for that company.

HOWEVER, good news USUALLY means a surge in price over 2-3 days, THEN a drop.

WATCH: TAP.A (in anticipation of a drop)

No scoring as there's no prior predictions to score.

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Predictions and Scoring 2016-10-14

So, I have nothing on watch, nothing predicted for today to score, and no predictions from the graph database. What do I do?

Well, I could announce that I have no predictions and nothing to score.

I could do that.

Today there are no predictions and nothing to score.

There.

2016-10-13 Predictions and Scoring

Predictions and scoring for 2016-10-13

Prediction: EXR would go down today.

Score: NO. It went up today.

I put on watch

CUZ 

And QVCB

They both tanked hard, on my theory that stocks going down keep going down. Good theory or happy coincidence, or ... needing more constraints to make reliable predictions. We shall see.

Here's something I've noticed: NUGT and GDX have a price-movement correspondence.

NUGT

GDX

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2016-10-12 Predictions and Scoring

Predictions and scores for 2016-10-12

No scores for today.

Hypothesis: Securities on the downside of the price category with few prior mentions keep going down.

Therefore putting QVCB and CUZ on watch

Prediction EXR will go down 2016-10-13

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2016-10-11 Predictions and Scoring

Predictions and Scoring 2016-10-11

Neither predictions nor scores for today.

VALE was on watch, it went up twice in the last two days, and down slightly today (1.87%). I'm removing it from watch. No further interest.

Also, two securities I predicted would go down, did. Hard. Just not that day: NTNX (down 8%)

and AA, down 11.48%. My goodness.

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2016-10-10 Predictions and Scoring

Predications and Scoring 2016-10-10

Predictions: CLVS down 2016-10-11

Watch: VALE, why? It was up yesterday and up today. Indicative of a #pattern?

Scoring:

Predicted FTR would fall today. Did it? YES. FTR down ~2%

Data source: @grapheneDB @neo4j #graph database:

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2016-10-07 Predictions and Scoring

Prediction:

Today FTR was a leader in both price and volume categories. I predict it will fall on Monday, 2016-10-10*

Scoring:

Two days ago I predicted AA would have a price drop. It didn't yesterday, rising another 2%, but today it dropped 1%:

I predicted ALNY would rise yesterday, due to its drop yesterday. I was dead-wrong. ALNY dropped a further 5%. Not so good at predicting stocks that show up on the losers side of the price category, it seems, whereas stocks that show up on the leaders' side are more consistently likely to fall, substantially, the next day.

Yesterday SDRL dropped a little bit but not enough to warrant a short sell or put option. Today, however, SDRL dropped much further, down 5%:

ENH is waffling. Yesterday it dropped 0.22%; today it rose 0.22%. No clear determination here from my prediction.

* even though Monday, 2016-10-10 is Columbus Day, it is not a holiday: the Markets are open.

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2016-10-06 Predictions and Scoring: AA ENH SDRL CBB ALNY

Predictions and scoring 

Two days ago I predicted ENH SDRL and CBB would go down. I was wrong on two of the three yesterday: ENH (up 4%) and SDRL (up 3%) went up, and correct on CBB, which had a 3% price drop 

What if I sold CBB yesterday (on the price drop) and held ENH and SDRL until today? Do they drop?

Yes.

ENH price drop

SDRL price drop

And it was good to sell CBB yesterday, as it had a price increase today:

So, is the upshot to this that I extend the prediction to over a two-day period? Or am I adjusting the window to suit my need? And their price drop did NOT offset their interim gain, so do I need to wait even further, extending the window out to three days?

Yesterday I predicted AA would go down today, but:

AA up ~2%. NO.

Continuing price increase due to momentum, or because of positive expectations? I will watch AA.

From the top5s graph, ALNY had a price drop today. What will it do tomorrow? I predict its price will rise.

Day before yesterday, I put NTNX on watch but, since the markets have opened it is too late to capture what it did yesterday. 'The one that got away.'

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