2016-10-11 Predictions and Scoring

Predictions and Scoring 2016-10-11

Neither predictions nor scores for today.

VALE was on watch, it went up twice in the last two days, and down slightly today (1.87%). I'm removing it from watch. No further interest.

Also, two securities I predicted would go down, did. Hard. Just not that day: NTNX (down 8%)

and AA, down 11.48%. My goodness.

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2016-10-07 Predictions and Scoring

Prediction:

Today FTR was a leader in both price and volume categories. I predict it will fall on Monday, 2016-10-10*

Scoring:

Two days ago I predicted AA would have a price drop. It didn't yesterday, rising another 2%, but today it dropped 1%:

I predicted ALNY would rise yesterday, due to its drop yesterday. I was dead-wrong. ALNY dropped a further 5%. Not so good at predicting stocks that show up on the losers side of the price category, it seems, whereas stocks that show up on the leaders' side are more consistently likely to fall, substantially, the next day.

Yesterday SDRL dropped a little bit but not enough to warrant a short sell or put option. Today, however, SDRL dropped much further, down 5%:

ENH is waffling. Yesterday it dropped 0.22%; today it rose 0.22%. No clear determination here from my prediction.

* even though Monday, 2016-10-10 is Columbus Day, it is not a holiday: the Markets are open.

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2016-10-06 Predictions and Scoring: AA ENH SDRL CBB ALNY

Predictions and scoring 

Two days ago I predicted ENH SDRL and CBB would go down. I was wrong on two of the three yesterday: ENH (up 4%) and SDRL (up 3%) went up, and correct on CBB, which had a 3% price drop 

What if I sold CBB yesterday (on the price drop) and held ENH and SDRL until today? Do they drop?

Yes.

ENH price drop

SDRL price drop

And it was good to sell CBB yesterday, as it had a price increase today:

So, is the upshot to this that I extend the prediction to over a two-day period? Or am I adjusting the window to suit my need? And their price drop did NOT offset their interim gain, so do I need to wait even further, extending the window out to three days?

Yesterday I predicted AA would go down today, but:

AA up ~2%. NO.

Continuing price increase due to momentum, or because of positive expectations? I will watch AA.

From the top5s graph, ALNY had a price drop today. What will it do tomorrow? I predict its price will rise.

Day before yesterday, I put NTNX on watch but, since the markets have opened it is too late to capture what it did yesterday. 'The one that got away.'

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2016-10-05 Trading Top5s Analysis: AA

Markets Top5s Analysis for 2016-10-05

Created snapshot of top5s graph database; shunted to google drive

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2016-10-05

Mkt_Cap:AA,PTR,WFC,AMZN,CHL|AOS,BTI,CRM,UL,DD-A

Price:AA,KBR,ACIA,ERF,YRD|AOS,AZZ,GIMO,TRNO,CRM

Volume:TWTR,FTRPR,GLD,NOK,ABB,EEM,VXX,SAN,HSBC,VOD

Updated /Users/geophf/Documents/OneDrive/work/1HaskellADay/Seer/data/top5s.csv with 2016-10-05 data

Updating graph DaaS at http://top5ssecurities.sb02.stations.graphenedb.com:24789

bubbles

TWTR is in the news again. GOOG is backing away from an acquisition, others are stepping forward:

But how often do you see a 200% rise in stock, today, with AA, you do:

let's analyze AA

geophf:writing geophf$ analyze AA

Wrote analysis files for AA

AA SMA

AA EMA

AA Stochastic Oscillators

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Predictions 

Yesterday, I made the following predictions:

"So, prediction: CBB, SDRL, and ENH will go down on 2016-10-05. Also, watch NTNX"

Prediction: CBB down

Actual: I was correct; stock went down 3%

Prediction: SDRL down

Actual: I was way-wrong, stock went up 3%

Prediction: ENH down

Actual: I was way-wrong, stock went up 4%

NTNX watch (no information)

So, for the three stocks I predicted would have a price drop, I was only correct one out of three times for today. So, I have to dig deeper to be able to make more accurate and consistent predictions.

Today, I predict AA will go down in a sell-off as people take their profits.

2016-07-12 Trading Top5s Securities: AA

Markets top5s analysis for 2016-07-12

created snapshot 20160713-064824 of top5s graph database; shunted to google drive

scrape

2016-07-12

Mkt_Cap:PTR,MSFT,CHL,XOM,RDS.B|AMZN,KHC,WMT,DCM,WFC-L

Price:SAGE,STX,DNR,UWTI,SSTK|NUGT,MUX,ABX,AG,FIX

Volume:BAC,SIRI,FCX,LYG,AA,CHK,GE,RAD,MU,GDX

Updated /Users/geophf/Documents/OneDrive/work/1HaskellADay/Seer/data/top5s.csv with 2016-07-12 data

Updating graph DaaS at http://top5ssecurities.sb02.stations.graphenedb.com:24789

bubbles

let's analyze AA

geophf:writing geophf$ analyze AA

Wrote analysis files for AA

AA SMA

AA EMA

AA Stochastic Oscillators

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