Showing posts with label measures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label measures. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

2024-02-14 ETHBTC-THANG! day 262

Let's do the ETHBTC-THANG!

WHOO, BOY! $ETH and $BTC are waking up from their slumber, mayhap!

I record the { $ADA, $INDY }-prices from @Indigo_protocol, the $SNEK price from @MinswapDEX, and the { $ETH, $BTC }-prices from @Levana_protocol






EMA20s say swap { $ETH, $BTC } -> $ADA

I'm not swapping { $ETH, $BTC } to $ADA as @Indigo_protocol is my ETHBTC-HODL portfolio.

However, let's consult the { $ADA, $ETH, $BTC }-calculator.






It says to buy $ADA with $iUSD, so: let's do that.

Now, let's take a step back. I've been buying (and buying) $ADA from $iUSD over time, and at a 20% - 30% premium at that! (ugh?)

How do I know this approach is working?

Because I measure. 



My portfolio value today is higher now, with those buys, that it would be if I didn't.

The FRIST! thing I do is to harvest the $INDY-yields, then I swap those yields to $ADA. That takes care of ~50 $ADA that I'm 'buying' with the $iUSD. 





One day, my $INDY-yields will just straight up buy all the $ADA for the daily swap. That'll be sweet!

But that day is not today, so: I withdraw $iUSD from the staked position and swap that to $ADA.




HUZZAH! 

Am I done with @Cardano then?

Let's see.

Let's examine $SNEK.




According to the SNEK/USD EMA20, $SNEK is a good sell now, BUT according to the SNEK/ADA EMA20, $SNEK is a bargain-buy with $ADA.

What does this mean? It means that, even though $SNEK is up, it's still a bargain.

With that analysis, I swap 10% of my $ADA for $SNEK, using $SNEK as a pivot to arb my $ADA. When $SNEK skies, relative to $ADA, I'll swap the $SNEK back to $ADA.



This is a long-play, folks. 

And please note, I'm arb'n $ADA, not because I'm in love with $ADA-qua-$ADA, but because it's the medium of exchange on @Cardano that I use to grow my $iETH- and $iBTC-staked positions on @Indigo_protocol. 



2024-02-14 Indigo portfolio


incept date: 2023-07-27





0.01228 $iBTC: $640.56
0.7103 $iETH: $1,996.20
2,242.29 $iUSD: $2,242.29
1121 $ADA: $652.33
182971 $SNEK $210.77

total fees $79.97
total yields $663.91
net yields $583.95
23.63% APY

invested: $4,465.58
value: $5,742.16

ROI: 28.59% / 51.65% APR

Let's look at $ETH, $BTC, and ETH/BTC.



Unless you've been hiding under a rock, you won't be surprised to hear both $ETH and $BTC have skied of late, making great SELL-opportunities for both.

HOWEVER, ETH/BTC EMA20 shows that they've skied proportionately, making any trade even.


But a sky of $ETH or $BTC (or, in this case, both) is a good indicator to check on my @NolusProtocol $ETH-lease, and at a $20-gain, this looks like a good repay-point for me.



I'm OFT! to do a HOWTO video on repaying a Nolus-lease to acquire the leased-asset. 

Thursday, January 25, 2024

2024-01-25 ETHBTC-THANG! Day 242

Let's do the ETHBTC-THANG!

I record the price of $ADA from @Indigo_protocol and the $ETH and $BTC prices from @Levana_protocol.






The EMA20 indicators favor the { $ETH, $BTC } -> $ADA swap. I'm not going to do this swap, but this tells me NOT to buy $ETH or $BTC with $ADA today.

Okay, so! I'm not trading { $ETH, $BTC } -> $ADA, but $ADA is undervalued. Am I trading $iUSD -> $ADA?

Fair question. How do I answer it? [spoiler:]

WITH A SPREADSHEETSZORXEN!





My formula calculates that $ADA is only slightly undervalued, so I won't trade $iUSD for $ADA today.

2024-01-25 Indigo portfolio


incept date: 2023-07-27





0.01228 $iBTC: $487.63
0.7104 $iETH: $1,559.29
2,643.25 $iUSD: $2,643.25
778 $ADA: $360.14

total fees $63.63
total yields $592.50
net yields $528.86
APY: 23.75%

invested: $4,465.58
value: $5,050.31
ROI: 5.03% / 10.09% APR

Indigo Analysis

You see my HODL portfolio in @Indigo_protocol has gone down. Am I concerned?

No.

  1. It's still net+
  2. When it goes net-, that's an indicator for me to infuse capital into this portfolio.

Why?

I am long-term bullish on $ETH and $BTC. Them going down is a buy-signal for me.

2024-01-25 ETHBTC-THANG! Day 242







  • no swap; no EMA-ratio δ

ETH: 3.94153 / BTC: 0.0966

Total: $12,487.25 TVL EMA-20: $12,329.13
n.b.: TVL EMA-20 indicates that ETHBTC, itself, is cruising!

ROI: 2.89% / 4.35% APR

Chart Review

Let's go over each of these charts, in turn, because each chart means something.

I'll show how I use each chart to grow my ETHBTC-portfolio

  1. the ETH/BTC ratio vs. EMA 20


This chart tells me when to swap $ETH for $BTC or to swap $BTC for $ETH and how much to swap.

  • When the blue line (the ratio) is ABOVE the red line (EMA20), $ETH is overvalued, vis-à-vis $BTC, so I swap $ETH for $BTC
  • When the blue line is BELOW the red line, I swap $BTC for $ETH

Today I do nothing, as red and blue are kissin' 😘

  1. ETHBTC trading portfolio, total value


This chart tells me my ETHBTC-portfolio is undervalued or overvalued with respect to $ETH and $BTC's intrinsic value.

  • When the blue line (value) is ABOVE the green line (EMA20), the I'm 'overvalued,' so I cruise.
  • When the blue line is BELOW the green line, I'm 'undervalued,' which tells me I should infuse capital as BOTH $BTC and $ETH in my portfolio's combination are currently undervalued.
  1. ETHBTC: value-proposition of swaps


Given: HODL'n $ETH and $BTC as a portfolio is a good thing, ...

Does trading $ETH for $BTC (or vice versa), using the ratio-vs-EMA20 indicator, add MOAR value?

This chart measures my swaps, showing:

Yes, I DO BUIDL value by swapping. 🎉

Measure

What if my swapping DIDN't add value over HODL'n ETHBTC as a portfolio? What then?

Would I quit swapping?

No.

The ETH/BTC ratio does work for many investors. If my value-proposition of swaps were negative, that would indicate I'd need to improve when I swapped and by how much.

Measure, folks.

Measure, measure, measure, and, if you aren't sure, and, even if you are:

Measure.

That's the take-away.

You see how well you invest by measuring now. Then you see if you're improving by continuing to measure.

Measures drive improvement and innovation.

  1. ETHBTC Portfolio composition


This is a different way at looking at the value-proposition of swaps. You see, here, there's a dance between the 50/50 $BTC / $ETH I started with, tending to all $ETH (as $BTC was overvalued), then easing back to some $BTC (as $ETH was overvalued)

Putting Liquidity to Work


You also see in the chart --^ that I have a LOT of $ETH, ...more than I can trade in one day.

And $ETH has an LSD ('liquid stake derivative'): $wstETH.

There are several ways I can take advantage of this liquidity that's just sitting around, in fact: I can put it to work.

How?

Ghost

  1. I put an estimated couple of days of $ETH and $BTC trades as reserves by lending both to @TeamKujira Ghost.


You see, at present, $wETH lending rate is 17%

HOLY WHAAA???

And $wBTC lending rate is 4.5%

which is also very good.

Unlike some other money markets, @TeamKujira Ghost pays its lending rates as APRs!

What does this mean, APR vs. APY?

It means this:

  • Lent $ETH is paid in $ETH!
  • Lent $BTC is paid in $BTC!

Not in some protocol token.

Ghost's lending rates, folks, are the real deal, and no joke.

wstETH

  1. You can swap your $ETH to $wstETH.



By simply HODL'n $wstETH, instead of $ETH, you earn a 3.5% APR on your underlying $ETH.


3.5% may be meh, but it's 3.5% more than simply HODL'n $ETH.

So, yes: I swap my extra $ETH to $wstETH for that reason, ...

...and other reasons.

Arbitrage


The "and other reasons" includes this:




I arb $wETH with $wstETH on @TeamKujira FIN.

Here I replace a filled buy- and sell-order with a new buy- and sell-order (yes: again).

How much did I make on each?


ROI: 20.09%; 431.44% APR for the sell
ROI: 2.29%; 208.66% APR for the buy

Let me highlight one thing from these trades on the wstETH/wETH @TeamKujira FIN order book:

I sold $wstETH, buying 0.43 $wETH at the discounted price of $1,858; the market price is $2,211.

I simply placed the order: I made $151 with that one sale.

Folks, you can do this, too.

Sunday, July 30, 2023

2023-07-30 ETHBTC-THANG! Day 63

2023-07-30 ETHBTC-THANG! Day 63

The ETHBTC-THANG! 






  • swap 0.0172 $BTC

After swap:

ETH: 5.34659
BTC: 0.00010

Total: $9,985.44

I do ye ol' ETHBTC-thang!:

  1. withdraw the $BTC from @TeamKujira Ghost Lend


  1. bridge to @osmosiszone via Satellite (you're welcome Satellite)


  1. swap $BTC -> $ETH


But let's pause there and take stock.

Does the ETHBTC-thang! actually work? How do we measure that? 

We measure it thusly: with good record-keeping.



  • Yesterday, I traded 0.267176 $ETH for some $BTC
  • Today I traded that $BTC back (minus ε of the bridge fee from Satellite) for 0.26757 $ETH.

That is to say, today I traded slightly less $BTC back for slightly more $ETH.

It works.