2023-05-31 ETHBTC experiment, Day 3

2023-05-31 ETHBTC experiment, Day 3

swap 0.1812 ETH

ETH: 1.2687

BTC: 0.16465

Total: $6,715.54

spreadsheetszorxen: 

Closing a short on Kujira

This looks like an excellent time to exit my $LUNA short position, as I sold at 89¢ $USK and it's now trading at 80.6¢ $USK.

This short couldn't have gone better.

HOWTO

So! How do I close the short?

1. I draw-down some of the collateral from Ghost

2. With that, I buy $LUNA. Cheapest now is on Terra @astroport_fi, so I bridge the funds to Terra, buy the $LUNA, and bridge the $LUNA back to @TeamKujira 

3. With that $LUNA, I pay-off the borrow.

How much did I make off the short?

That's hard to nail down, because I wasn't trading in $USK. No, I had a $LUNA-borrow against $axlUSDC-collateral.

BUT! I did sell 66.149 $LUNA at 0.899 $USK and just bought back at 0.805 $USK.

That makes a tidy net sum of 7.295 $USK. YAY! 🎉

For those of you doing the math long-hand, you're saying: "No, that's not right."

I'm also factoring in the 1.172x leverage on the short position, as my borrow leveraged additional $LUNA-borrow.

Now, 7 $USK may not look like much, but consider this. This was a short on 200 $axlUSDC collateral, or 61 (borrowed) $LUNA

Closing the short gained me 12% ROI, annualized to 224% APR. AND! it was a good learning experience.

I argue that shorting $LUNA turned out pretty well!

Do I want to short $LUNA again like this?

Hm.

So, it's 7 $USK made off of 200 $axlUSDC (224% APR).

I can do better by arb'n the $axlUSDC directly.

When @TeamKujira comes out with shorts on FIN, I'll take another look at this.

ETHBTC experiment, Day 2, 2023-05-30

ETHBTC experiment, Day 2

spreadsheetszorxen

• I create a new row: day 2

• I record $BTC and $ETH prices from @osmosiszone into columns C and D.

The SPREADSHEETSZORXEN sez:

swap 0.1823 ETH

So, I withdraw that amount from @TeamKujira Ghost 

and bridge it to @osmosiszone via Satellite.

Channel 9, for future reference

On @osmosiszone, I swap the $ETH to $BTC as $ETH's price rises and $BTC's price falls. 

I hop (@axelarcore) hop (@TeamKujira) the $wBTC back, then lend it out on Ghost.

Anybody want to borrow $wBTC? As the price is falling, you can short it, so that when you pay back the borrow, you pay less than what you borrowed it.

Doesn't hurt that it will sky the lend APR. 😎

Top 15 FIN order books by volume, 2023-05-30

Top 15 FIN order books by volume, 2023-05-30

 

1. KUJI/axlUSDC,$77.93K
2. axlUSDC/USK,$21.51K
3. KUJI/USK,$13.45K
4. ATOM/axlUSDC,$9.85K
5. ATOM/USK,$8.88K
6. MNTA/USK,$3.61K
7. JUNO/axlUSDC,$2.61K
8. INJ/USK,$2.28K
9. MARS/axlUSDC,$2.07K
10. LUNA/USK,$1.62K
11. MNTA/axlUSDC,$1.57K
12. KUJI/ATOM,$1.43K
13. LUNA/axlUSDC,$1.07K
14. OSMO/axlUSDC,$1.04K
15. WHALE/USK,$1.03K

Report generated by ./top_order_books

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW, 2023-05-30

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW by volume, 2023-05-30

 

1. axlUSDC/USK,$1068943.875,7%,25%
2. axlUSDC/USK,$1068943.875,7%,25%
3. KUJI/USK,$673539.062,1%,29%
4. KUJI/USK,$673539.062,1%,29%
5. ampKUJI/KUJI,$512336.062,0%,1%

Showing all LPs with $100k+ volume

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW by APR(combined), 2023-05-30

 

1. PEPE/wETH,$0.000,508%,508%
2. PEPE/wETH,$0.000,508%,508%
3. ROAR/USK,$14802.610,5%,153%
4. ROAR/USK,$14802.610,5%,153%
5. MNTA/USK,$51662.609,17%,153%

Showing all LPs with 100%+ APR/APY

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW by APR(21 Day Trading), 2023-05-30

 

1. PEPE/wETH,$0.000,508%,508%
2. PEPE/wETH,$0.000,508%,508%
3. WHALE/USK,$27861.529,39%,110%
4. WHALE/USK,$27861.529,39%,110%
5. MNTA/USK,$51662.609,17%,153%

Report generated by ./lps

ETHBTC EMA-20 Spreadsheet

NEW SPREADSHEETSZORXEN!

This spreadsheet uses the EMA-20 to make BTC/ETH swap determinations.

It's available for you to copy and to use as a #cryptocurrency resource on my Crypto-page. 

Day 1

Okay, my SPREADSHEETSZORXEN! says to swap 0.1828 $ETH, so:

• I withdraw that amount from my Ghost-lend

• I bridge the $ETH to @osmosiszone 

• then swap the $ETH to $BTC 

• I then bridge the $BTC back to @TeamKujira 

• then lend that $BTC to Ghost

I track the $ETH and $BTC bags and their gains (or losses) on the SPREADSHEETSZORXEN!

Top 15 FIN order books by volume, 2023-05-29

Top 15 FIN order books by volume, 2023-05-29

 

1. KUJI/axlUSDC,$71.19K
2. axlUSDC/USK,$43.66K
3. KUJI/USK,$19.19K
4. ATOM/USK,$18.95K
5. ATOM/axlUSDC,$10.05K
6. wETH/axlUSDC,$5.80K
7. LUNA/axlUSDC,$3.85K
8. MNTA/axlUSDC,$2.71K
9. WHALE/USK,$2.57K
10. wBNB/USK,$2.21K
11. KUJI/ATOM,$2.14K
12. wBNB/axlUSDC,$2.00K
13. MNTA/USK,$1.72K
14. LUNA/USK,$1.60K
15. INJ/USK,$1.05K

Report generated by ./top_order_books

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW, 2023-05-29

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW by volume, 2023-05-29

 

1. axlUSDC/USK,$1045557.625,7%,26%
2. KUJI/USK,$672929.625,1%,29%
3. ampKUJI/KUJI,$457890.781,0%,0%
4. KUJI/ATOM,$235111.094,16%,20%
5. KUJI/axlUSDC,$164643.516,6%,12%

Showing all LPs with $100k+ volume

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW by APR(combined), 2023-05-29

 

1. PEPE/wETH,$0.000,508%,508%
2. MNTA/axlUSDC,$42564.629,0%,162%
3. MNTA/USK,$49280.301,17%,157%
4. ROAR/USK,$14394.530,5%,157%
5. MARS/axlUSDC,$20522.199,0%,133%

Showing all LPs with 100%+ APR/APY

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW by APR(21 Day Trading), 2023-05-29

 

1. PEPE/wETH,$0.000,508%,508%
2. WHALE/USK,$28122.980,40%,114%
3. MNTA/USK,$49280.301,17%,157%
4. KUJI/ATOM,$235111.094,16%,20%
5. FURY/USK,$732.330,13%,50%

Report generated by ./lps

Cryptocurrency pop-quiz: ETHBTC with proportional swaps

We see in this previous ETHBTC pop-quiz answer that a daily straight 5% swap on the EMA-20-vs-ETHBTC-ratio gets up to 115% APR.

NOICE! 🎉

Can we do better?

#cryptocurrency pop-quiz:

What APR do we see if we swap PROPORTIONATE TO the EMA-20-vs-ETHBTC-ratio?

Show your work, lulz 😎

Top 13 FIN order books by volume, 2023-05-28

Top 13 FIN order books by volume, 2023-05-28

 

1. KUJI/axlUSDC,$136.99K
2. KUJI/USK,$88.22K
3. axlUSDC/USK,$74.35K
4. ATOM/axlUSDC,$33.83K
5. ATOM/USK,$8.39K
6. LUNA/USK,$4.15K
7. KUJI/LOCAL,$4.14K
8. LUNA/axlUSDC,$3.08K
9. WHALE/USK,$3.02K
10. KUJI/ATOM,$2.55K
11. KUJI/LUNA,$2.51K
12. MNTA/USK,$1.70K
13. PAXG/axlUSDC,$1.04K

Report generated by ./top_order_books

Top 5 LPs on TeamKujira BOW, 2023-05-28

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW by volume, 2023-05-28

 

1. axlUSDC/USK,$1007831.812,7%,25%
2. KUJI/USK,$650932.750,1%,29%
3. ampKUJI/KUJI,$430427.688,0%,0%
4. KUJI/ATOM,$229260.562,17%,20%
5. KUJI/axlUSDC,$161687.422,6%,12%

Showing all LPs with $100k+ volume

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW by APR(combined), 2023-05-28

 

1. PEPE/wETH,$0.000,401%,401%
2. MNTA/axlUSDC,$36589.391,0%,186%
3. MNTA/USK,$47603.320,18%,161%
4. ROAR/USK,$13580.720,5%,158%
5. MARS/USK,$16308.090,0%,126%

Showing all LPs with 100%+ APR/APY

Top 5 LPs on @TeamKujira BOW by APR(21 Day Trading), 2023-05-28

 

1. PEPE/wETH,$0.000,401%,401%
2. WHALE/USK,$28211.920,40%,116%
3. MNTA/USK,$47603.320,18%,161%
4. KUJI/ATOM,$229260.562,17%,20%
5. FURY/USK,$739.920,12%,44%

Report generated by ./lps

HOWTO arb KUJI ... without arb'n KUJI

HOWTO arb $KUJI

... without arb'n $KUJI.

Preamble

Let's talk arbitration for a hot second. What is it?

Arbitration is a set of transactions: you start with x tokens, let's say $KUJI, and, after the transactions are complete, you end with x+ε tokens.

If you sit down and give this a think, this is the golden arrow, frenz. 🏹

Why do I say "arbitration is the golden arrow"?

Because it's what you want.

You want to make money, and not lose money, right? Arbitration is one of the simplest ways to do this, because if you have x, then you have x+ε, then, voilà, you've made money AND eliminated volatility!

THAT's why I like arbitration so much!

THAT's why you call me the space cowboy.

... sorry: the 'Arbitration KANGz! 👑' 😎

And I'm going to give this golden arrow, ...

on a silver platter.

Why?

Because I love you.

Now, SIT UP and PAY ATTENTION!

So we all can WIN THIS THING!

Now: arbitration is low(er)-risk than other kinds of trades, but it's not 'no risk.' 

Also, arbitration requires you wrap your head around what it is.

Also-also, arbitration isn't flashy nor grandiose: it requires patience, smarts, and more patience.

For the risks, I'll point those out as we go along, AND! risk colors this HOWTO: I start with the riskier (most common) kinds of arbs, but then we'll go from riskier to less to even less.

The neat thing? 'Less risk' doesn't necessarily mean 'less return.'

But we'll get to that.

Let's go over each type of arb that I know in turn. I'm going break this down into three types of arbs, and I'm going to use $KUJI as the working example.

So, I'm going to talk, I'm going to show, using examples.

So, let's roll up our sleeves, and get into these, eh, frenz?

When I say "let's," I mean: you do this. You actually do these exercises, and find out if arbs work for you, or if they don't, and find out which types of arbs you like, and which ones you don't.

That's how I learned arbitration: others told with me what they did, then I did it.

Let's look at each arb-type in turn.

First up: 

KUJI -> x -> KUJI arb

Usually this is KUJI -> stable -> stable -> KUJI

But stables and which order?

For that, we have to look at the FIN order books. 

What do the order books say now?

KUJI/axlUSDC: $0.911

KUJI/USK: $0.903

Perfect! That is to say: we want to sell high; buy low and the order books present this scenario perfectly.

Let's do an walk-through with an 100 $KUJI-arb.

1. SELL 100 $KUJI at 0.898-per (yields 89.73 $axlUSDC)

2. SELL 89.73 $axlUSDC at 0.9651-per (yields 86.536 $USK)

3. BUY 100.2 $KUJI from 86.536 $USK

DONE! 

DONE! But there's a problem with this arb, specifically, and a risk with this type of arb, in general.

The problem is 0.2% ROI isn't an arb I'm interested in. If it's not at at least a 1% gain, I'm spending a lot of energy for almost no gain.

Not. interested.

The risk, in general, with this type of arb is this.

You sell the $KUJI for the stable. $KUJI skies. You make no gain, in fact, you lose your $KUJI by 10%, 20%, 30%. That's not an arb I'd like to be involved with, but, I must admit, this has happened to me more than once.

Now, this risk can be mitigated and this problem can be dealt with, and I've done both mitigations.

The mitigation?

Instead of placing an order, waiting for it to fill, then placing the next order, all the way to end of the arb, place all the orders at the same time.

The faster you fill all the orders in your arb, the less exposed you are to market fluctuations that can ruin your arb.

Credit to @technologypoet for giving me this idea by simply asking the question: "Do you place orders one after the other, or all at once?"

I had always, up to the point, placed one order after the other, but her question made me ask: "why? Why not place them all at once?"

Now the problem, the 0.2% ROI, I mitigate by placing my limit orders further from market price, thus increasing ROI. The problem with THAT is then the order takes longer to fill, and if the markets run away from you, 'longer to fill' may mean 'months' or 'never.'

It's happened.

Other KUJI -> x -> KUJI arbs

The $KUJI -> x -> $KUJI arb doesn't have to be stables. It could be:

KUJI -> LUNA -> ampLUNA -> USK -> KUJI

That's an arb, and looking at just this example, you see that you can get really creative with this kind of arb.

I do.

Take, for example, this arb I just completed.

2023-05-25 entry: 50 KUJI -> 47.7 LUNA, SELL at 0.954

2023-05-28 exit: 47.7 LUNA -> 62.9288 KUJI, BUY at 0.758

ROI: 25.86%, 4 days, annualized to 3.2k% APR

This is telling. The arb took three days, so: patience, but 3.2k% APR?

Yes, please, and thank you! 😎

KUJI -> ampKUJI -> KUJI arb

(this, of course, applies to any token that has an associated LSD ('liquid staking derivative') and order book that supports this trade).

1. BORROW 100 $KUJI from 300 $axlUSDC on Ghost

(because you arb with OTHER PEOPLE's MONEY!)

2. Next, with the 100 (borrowed) $KUJI, place a buy order on the ampKUJI/KUJI FIN order book. Looking at the market, I place my buy at 0.9556 (just above a large buy order, front-running the bigger fish in this pond).

3. When that order fills, I claim the $ampKUJI, examine the market, the place a SELL order of the $ampKUJI, completing the arb.
   
   
   In this case the arb will be around 1%. I'll then pay-back the borrow and then walk away with my 0.9 $KUJI, given to me with OTHER PEOPLE's MONEY.

Folks, I LIKE this arb, a lot. It's so durn safe and so flexible.

This is how and where I started my "Infinite $ONE Well" off a tip to me to look at the wide gap between $stONE and $ONE, and now I'm doing that with $FTM and $sFTMX.

This works so well with so many tokens.

Not only that, but, because this kind of arb is between a token and its LSD, the chance that these two tokens diverge, leaving you holding the bag, is infinitesimal compared to a token-vs-stable divergence, that happens WAY more often.

Arb'n LSDs is just so YUMMY for me! 😋

That said, and I AM grateful to @eris_protocol for making this arb possible, but the $KUJI-arb is my least favorite LSD-arb.

$LUNA? Fantastic! $FTM? It has issues, but it's workable.

But $KUJI's LSD is ALMOST pegged with well nigh no wiggle room for me to play arbs with.

That's not a bad thing, that's actually an indicator of a healthy, vibrate ecosystem, with a LOT of volume trading $KUJI to $ampKUJI and back.

That the arbiteur's job: keeping a token on peg, and $KUJI-$ampKUJI are TIGHTLY on peg, making arbs not as easy as with other tokens.

Okay, now,

無 $KUJI arb

The 'no-$KUJI'-$KUJI arb.

This is an interesting one for me, because it's weird (1) and it's the safest-...ish (2).

What is the 無 $KUJI arb and how does this arb work?

You arb $KUJI without arb'n $KUJI.

That's what it is.

How to do this?

You arb something, because liquidity is liquidity.

1. Borrow 100 $USK against 400 $KUJI

2. arb the $USK on axlUSDC/USK board

3. payback the borrow
4. with the overage, buy $KUJI

That's your 無 $KUJI arb.

The beauty of this arb is that you're protecting the token arb'd. AND no matter what the volumes are for the arb'd token, you can arb with a high-volume token (such as $USK, in this example), so your arb is well-nigh a success already, and then you simply buy with the overage.

Now, I arb $KUJI in this example, but that example is boring: $KUJI has high volume on FIN, and so does $USK.

But what if I arb another $USK-minter, like, say: $ETH or $BTC.

On @TeamKujira, neither $ETH nor $BTC have high trade volumes.

But.

$USK.

Does.

"But how am I going to buy $ETH or $BTC if those order books are low-volume, geophf?"

Glad you asked.

There's this little LP-based DEX called @osmosiszone that you can bridge liquidity to and from.

The @TeamKujira FIN order books against you? They're with you on @osmosiszone. 

Think about it. $ETH, $BTC, $DOT, $BNB: these are $USK-minting tokens that aren't easy to come by, and aren't – up to now – easy to arb on @TeamKujira FIN.

Now, frenz, they are.

You want more of token X?

Arb token X with one of these three arb-tactics.

I love you.

Crypto pop-quiz answer: ETH/BTC investment apportionment

Okay, this ETH-BTC apportionment quiz has no answer and every answer, because it very much depends on your crypto investment philosophy.

• One answer: $BTC? $ETH? I don't invest in blue chips!
• Another answer: Can't I make more faster with [name your alt-coin].
• A third: Crypto? Are you insane???

So, that's thinking outside of the box.

I enjoin you to do this.

When you're presented with a choice, ask yourself: do I have to choose this or that? Why? Why can't I do something else entirely?

You've been taught to think 'in the box.'

Destroy the box, then: make your own.

Alternatively, boxes do exist for a reason.

Huh? Yeup. They make distinction from "all that out there" to "this: here."

So, what if the "this: here" works for you and is what you want to do?

Well, then, do that.

Just know that you are choosing the "this: here," is all.

Okay: "this: here" not "all that out there."

Because the "this: here"? $ETH and $BTC?

They've been working well for the past 10 years, so, yeah: I choose them as major players in BUIDL'n my future.

But we face the original problem statement: how to apportion ETH-BTC purchases.

The question is surprisingly pliable. Here are the options I saw in answering the question.

1. ETH-BTC: 50%/50%.

Invest $axlUSDC in equal amounts, that would give us 

• 0.12 $BTC and 1.74 $ETH

That's easy, straightforward, no-hassle answer that gets us at the starting blocks.

But then there's the ETH-BTC ratio.

What does this ratio tell us? It tells us the relative strength of $ETH to $BTC.

The higher the ratio, the 'stronger' $ETH is, relative to $BTC.

What does 'strong' $ETH mean? And how can we use it? And is $ETH even 'strong' relative to $BTC?

There are 3, major, averages to determine the above, and then there are hundreds more indicators, but let's just stick with the averages, not even considering standard deviations, as previous quizzes have shown averages, here, are good-enough indicators.

But which average?

Simple Average

The first average, the simple average, 

says this:

• ratio: 0.06837
• simple average: 0.067405

That is to say, $ETH is stronger than $BTC by a smidge (that's a technical term) 🙄

Investing, using the simple average, gets us a 53% gain

Nice.

The problem with the average is that ... you can't use it.

Huh?

The average predicts, or assumes, that the future is the same as the past, or: you're investing in the past with backtesting, and, IRL, you can't do that.

That's why we have the SMA and the EMA.

SMA and EMA: simple moving average and exponential moving average.

Get to know these moving averages. They are your friends.

Why are they your friends? Because they give you timely and responsive averages that you can action on IN THE PRESENT, not just backtest against.

SMA and EMA: simple moving average and exponential moving average.

Get to know these moving averages. They are your friends.

Why are they your friends? Because they give you timely and responsive averages that you can action on IN THE PRESENT, not just backtest against.

• SMA
• EMA

Okay, so, let's examine the SMA, specifically the SMA-200.

That takes a while (200 days) to establish.

60% APR

Which is okay, but not as good as the (unusable, admittedly) simple average. 

Can we do better? 

Yes, in fact, we can, ... with the EMA-20.

99% APR

And with dollar-value returns comparable to the simple (unusable) average, to boot.

So, I'm going with the EMA, and the EMA says:

ratio: 0.0684

EMA-20: 0.0672

... that the ratio is a smidge high: $ETH-strong.

Okay, we've determined: $ETH-strong. So, ... what?

Well, what I do now is do a relative-buy, that is to say: I buy $ETH-to-$BTC that the EMA/ratio-ratio is.

And, yes, I just said ratio-ratio with a straight face.

Here's what that looks like.

• $BTC investment: 3195.96 $axlUSDC
• $ETH investment: 3083.32 $axlUSDC

Since $ETH is strong(er)(-...ish) I buy (slightly) less $ETH than $BTC, and that's how I use the ETHBTC-ratio.

This translates into:

• 1.703 $ETH
• 0.121 $BTC

And that's my answer for this pop-quiz.

*WHEW*! 😅