2024-10-29 Avalanche analyses

2024-10-29 Avalanche analyses. 

AVAX/USD

For AVAX/USD, ./dawn recommends HODL with a δ-confidence of 3.14%.

(I trade on δ-confidences over 10%). 

AVAX/QI

For AVAX/QI, ./dawn recommends QI -> AVAX with a δ-confidence of 19.15%.

Since I only have 17k of $QI, a trade would be for $4.5, so I'll pass on this one. I only trade at $10+ and transaction fees must be less than 1% of the trade.

If YOU have a lot of $QI, then this might be a good trade for you.

2024-10-28 Avalanche pivot arbitrage analysis

Today's $AVAX EMA-20 pivot arbitrage analysis, brought to you by ./dawn.  

AVAX/USD

Today, AVAX/USD ratio (blue) is below EMA-20 (gold), indicating a BUY with an 11.46% δ-confidence.

AVAX/QI

The AVAX/QI chart indicates AVAX and QI ratio (blue) and EMA-20 (gold) are at parity. ./dawn recommends HODL.

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-18

Let's do the @avax-THANG!

The QI/AVAX-EMA20 is (barely just) HODL, so I HODL off.

The AVAX/ETH- and AVAX/BTC-EMA20 indicators also say "HODL!" 

so here I am HODL'n my $AVAX bags, ... LIKE A BOSS! 

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-18 

total net worth: $34,745.94 

total invested: $36,331.69 

total debts: -$40,610.54 / LTV: 60.93% (max 70% LTV) 

ROI: -4.36% 

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-16

Let's do the @avax-THANG!

The QI/AVAX-EMA20 calls for SELL, but as I have less than $10 of $QI, I'll hold off today. 

The AVAX/BTC is BUY, but as I have no $BTC on @avax, I do nothing. 

The AVAX/ETH is HODL, so I do nothing here, too.

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-16 

total net worth: $32,895.20 

total invested: $36,331.69 

total debts: -$37,863.44 / LTV: 60.95% (max 70% LTV) 

ROI: -9.46% 

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-15

Let's do the @avax-THANG!

The QI/AVAX-EMA20 says SELL. I have no $QI to sell, so we good. 

The AVAX/{BTC, ETH} are BUY and HODL, respectively. Since I have no $BTC, I do nothing in any case.

The uptick of $AVAX was rosy for the whole blockchain. I showed my daughter the $AVAX-chart and told her I just made $1,000 on the price-movement.

I was wrong, as I just made $1,650, in point of fact.

I don't mind being wrong in this case. 😎

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-15

total net worth: $32,050.58

total invested: $36,331.69

total debts: -$36,835.48 / LTV: 60.96% (max 70% LTV)

ROI: -11.78%

Still a ways to dig myself out, but I'm pleased that the QI/AVAX pivot arbitrage is helping me to do that.

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-14

Let's do the @avax-THANG!

The QI/AVAX-EMA20 says SELL. 

It turns out I DO have $QI to convert: as yields on @BenqiFinance. I harvest those yields and swap to $AVAX. I also harvest the $AVAX yields on @GMX_IO (compounding the multiplier points).

I only have 0.6 $AVAX over gas-reserves, so I'll wait to convert the $AVAX to $sAVAX. 

Both the { AVAX/BTC, AVAX/ETH }-EMA20 indicators call BUY, so I'll HODL off swapping $AVAX to either blue-chip until the EMA20 calls for a SELL.

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-14 

total net worth: $30,355.95 

total invested: $36,331.69 

total debts: -$34,573.30 / LTV: 60.96% (max 70% LTV) 

ROI: -16.45% 

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-10

Let's do the @avax-THANG!

A price-spike in $QI makes a SELL-call from the QI/AVAX-EMA20.

Let's see what comes out of the QI/AVAX arbitrage.

Arbitrage

First arbitrage:

1. I traded 9.5 $AVAX for 19330.6 $QI on 2024-03-30
2. I now trade back that $QI for 11.22 $AVAX

ROI: 17.52% 125.38% APR

... I'm going to keep trading until I re-reach parity or until my $QI runs out.

Second arbitrage:

1. I traded 10 $AVAX for 19963.8 $QI on 2024-03-21
2. I now trade 19963.8 $QI for 11.4 $AVAX

ROI: 14.39%; 105.04% APR

Third arbitrage

1. I traded 10 $AVAX for 19866 $QI on 2024-03-30
2. I now trade 19866 $QI for 11.3 $AVAX

ROI: 13.43%; 119.57% APR

• Is a walk-through of arbitrating $AVAX using @BenqiFinance $QI as the pivot-asset.

Fourth arbitrage:

1. I traded 10.73 $AVAX for 21.7k $QI on 2024-04-01
2. I now trade 21.7k $QI back for 12.7 $AVAX

ROI: 18.38%; 172.06% APR

The fifth arbitrage is a little weird, as I combine the remaining five trades to $QI (which were much smaller in scope) into one trade back to $AVAX.

Somehow 1,632.31 $QI got lost in the shuffle. I'm not happy about that.

But I am happy about this:

ROI: 22.33%; 311.08% APR

@BenqiFinance 

Would you have any idea how 1.6k $QI could end up 'lost'? I have transaction ids showing the trades from $AVAX to $QI then from $QI to $AVAX. I'm missing 1.6k $QI.

One more trade: there's accumulated $QI-as-yields on @BenqiFinance. I collect those, swap them to $AVAX on @TraderJoe_xyz then swap all $AVAX (included $AVAX from arbitrage) to $sAVAX and supply it to @BenqiFinance 

How did I do?

Overall, I took 51.2 $AVAX, and pivoting via $QI,

I ended up with

61.5 $AVAX 💥

ROI: 20.02%; 210.76% APR

That, my friends, is nothing to sneeze at.

On top of that I converted 7.1k $QI-yields to 3.5 $AVAX on favorable EMA20 call.

I am LIKING these EMA20 trades!

To celebrate my materializing 10 $AVAX from 51 $AVAX in arbitrage, I uber'd in this scrumptious gourmet Fillet o' Fish meal from McDo! 

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-10 

total net worth: $32,399.25 

total invested: $36,331.69 

total debts: -$37,605.60 / LTV: 60.99% (max 70% LTV) 

ROI: -10.82% 

The AVAX/ETH-EMA20 says HODL

The AVAX/BTC-EMA20 says BUY

(which amounts to a HODL, as I have no $BTC on @avax)

So I sit tight here.