2024-10-30 ./dawn recommendations

2024-10-30: as $BTC continues to rocket 🚀 ./dawn recommends both $BTC and $ETH swaps to $ADA and $USDC on @Indigo_protocol. 

2024-10-29 Avalanche analyses

2024-10-29 Avalanche analyses. 

AVAX/USD

For AVAX/USD, ./dawn recommends HODL with a δ-confidence of 3.14%.

(I trade on δ-confidences over 10%). 

AVAX/QI

For AVAX/QI, ./dawn recommends QI -> AVAX with a δ-confidence of 19.15%.

Since I only have 17k of $QI, a trade would be for $4.5, so I'll pass on this one. I only trade at $10+ and transaction fees must be less than 1% of the trade.

If YOU have a lot of $QI, then this might be a good trade for you.

2024-10-29 ./dawn recommendations

2024-10-29 ./dawn recommends swaps on @Indigo_protocol from both $iBTC and $iETH as both $BTC and $ETH surge today. 

2024-10-28 Avalanche pivot arbitrage analysis

Today's $AVAX EMA-20 pivot arbitrage analysis, brought to you by ./dawn.  

AVAX/USD

Today, AVAX/USD ratio (blue) is below EMA-20 (gold), indicating a BUY with an 11.46% δ-confidence.

AVAX/QI

The AVAX/QI chart indicates AVAX and QI ratio (blue) and EMA-20 (gold) are at parity. ./dawn recommends HODL.

"Hey, will I get rekt this trade?"

"Hey, should I trade my $FTM for $AVAX? or ... on-chain: trade my $AVAX for $QI? ... or vice versa?"

How do you know when to trade, and when it's a good one?

Why not ask `rekt` if you're going to get, well: rekt in a trade? 

As you see above, `rekt` makes a trade-call along the EMA-20 indicator and assigns a confidence based upon the EMA20-vs-ratio δ.

What are the EMAs? `ema` charts those for you, showing the results in, e.g., a @tradingview chart.

"Which blockchains and which tokens does `rekt` follow, o, el geophf?" you ask.

Good question. `$PIVOT` has all the assets I currently track. 

They are: 

• $BTC $ETH $BNB $DOT $LINK $PAXG stables (across the blockaverse)

• Arbitrum: $ARB
• Avalanche: $AVAX $QI
• Cardano: $ADA $INDY $SNEK
• CØSMOS: $ATOM $OSMO
• Kujira: $KUJI $MNTA
• Optimism: $OP $LDO $SNX
• Terra: $LUNA $ROAR $ASTRO

Here's the thing.

All the above is open-source.

If you focus your investments on different blockchains, you can fork the repository and track your own tokens.

I walk you through this, step-by-step, in a series of quizzes – a big ol' geophf HOWTO! 

This whole concept of trading is what I call 'pivot arbitrage.' I have found pivot-arbitrage to be efficacious.

I maintain the repository of `pivot` and explore pivot-arbitrage in video and in articles  (search for 'pivot').

Pivot pop-quiz: dictionary of coin gecko token IDs

#Rust pop-quiz 03

You see, when you complete the previous quizfos that the first two lines of pivots.csv are metadata:

• line 1: @coingecko token API ids
• line 2: token-symbols

Pair line 1 to line 2. Then query a token API id to get its corresponding symbol.

Here we see the @coingecko token API id fantom is for $FTM

• (answer)

Pivot pop-quiz: libraryitize reading REST endpoint

#Rust pop-quiz 02

Now that you can read from a REST endpoint, shunt that functionality into its own module, read_rest.rs that has the following function:

read_pivots() -> ErrStr<Vec<String>>

We'll be using this as a library function in follow-on quizzes. 

The library name? swerve

• (answer)
• (next quiz)

Pivot pop-quiz: read REST endpoint

#Rust pop-quiz: build a trade-recommender based upon pivots (more deets on pivots here)

quiz 01: read this REST endpoint.

That's it. You can print out the response if you'd like.

Anybody want to counterchallenge me with #Elixir?

• (answer)

Fun fact!

Did you know that you – YES, YOU! – can make your git repository data a (GET) REST endpoint?

IT'S TRUE! HERE'S HOW IS ONE EASY STEP!

Your CSV, TSV, or, really, any data on github has a 'raw'-counterpart that can be queried, just like any GET REST endpoint.

Caveat 

These raw-representations are NOT updated instantly on a git push but there is a timed-delay of 5 minutes (300 seconds), so: if you do a git push and don't see the updates in the raw data, DON'T PANIC! This is not a bug, but a feature, from github. 

• (next quiz) 

Automating pivot-trading, 2024-06-04 update

Update on automating pivot-trading:

• I now have an API-key to @coingecko and am querying prices manually (including associating coingecko IDs to token symbols), receiving JSON responses

• All pivot tokens are in one spreadsheet for analysis.

2024-05-28 ETHBTC Trading

Let's turn our attention to ETH/BTC pivot-trading.

The ETH/BTC-EMA20 says SELL, and I have $ETH to sell to $BTC.

Let's see how this plays out.

Before I do that, I claim $wstETH on @TeamKujira FIN at 1.16-per-$wETH, which is a good buy, as the exchange rate on @LidoFinance is 1.167.

I then place the very reasonable sell-order back on FIN at 11.1-per, as that's the lowest asking price. Eheh. 🔥😅

So! My ETHBTC-calculator says:

• ETH: 1.44556 trade: 0.09356267365 / $359.81 to 0.00526354565 BTC

So! I 

1. withdraw that amount of $ETH from @TeamKujira Ghost, 

2. swap to $BTC on @Manta_DAO, 

3. lend the $BTC on Ghost 

4. to bid for liquidated $KUJI on ORCA

BOUM! BOUM! BOUM! 

Nolus

Meanwhile, I've accumulated $NLS-yields on @NolusProtocol Earn-page. I collect those yields. I see the swap is better on @osmosiszone, so I IBC my $NLS over to @osmosiszone and swap to $USDC.axl there. 

I ship the $axlUSDC (or, as they call it: $USDC.axl) to @TeamKujira, which involves me seeding my @axelarnetwork wallet addy with some $AXL then hopping my $USDC from osmosis -> axelar -> kujira, because that's how it's gotta be: complicated af to keep grandma off the blockchain.

Let's finish up this report from yesterday.

I got so p.o.'d from the $axlUSDC being '$USDC.axl' and needing two hops with an $AXL-seed to fund transfers to and from @axelarnetwork, that never finished the report-piece of the ETHBTC-trade 🧵

😤

I move the $USDC.axl to @TeamKujira Ghost then immediately bid on liquidated $PAXG on ORCA with it. With the $BTC I swapped to from $ETH, I Ghost-ORCA bid it for liquidated $KUJI. 

If neither bid hits, I'm still making 48% APR on the lent $USDC.axl and a with bit with the $BTC.

2024-05-28 ETHBTC Trading 

incept date: 2024-05-28 

$824.34 traded on FIN 

$4,883.31 ORCA bids 

$0.00 BLUE minters 

$4,082.8433 Ghost money market 

$303.993 Nolus leases 

$0.00 Levana perpetuals 

$12.37 reserves 

invested: $10,144.06 

valuation: $10,106.86 

ROI: -0.37% / 0.00% APR 

Hard Reset

I'm doing a hard-reset on this portfolio: I got entangled with $BTC I borrowed when it was $18k-per.

I was like: "Hey: why not? It's never going up." 🥺😭

So, after incorporating the blue chips of $BNB (that, very nicely, went 3x up) and $PAXG, and a rebalance, I start over.

ETHBTC Cardano Portfolio, 2024-05-20

Let's do the ETHBTC-THANG! ... starting with @Indigo_protocol on @Cardano.

There's a wee bit o' liquidated $ADA I can claim, but, as the new collateral ratios are going through, I'll wait for a mother-load before I claim here. 

Before I look at the ETH/BTC-EMA20, let's look at the SNEK/ADA-one. $SNEK has rocketed up, calling for a SELL, so I swap all my $SNEK for $ADA on @MinswapDEX.

Of the $SNEK I swapped to $ADA on @MinswapDEX, I only have a little bit of it 'on record,' so I make the SNEK/ADA pivot-arb 'official' by recording these swaps on my ETHBTC SPREADSHEETSZORXEN! 

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-18

Let's do the @avax-THANG!

The QI/AVAX-EMA20 is (barely just) HODL, so I HODL off.

The AVAX/ETH- and AVAX/BTC-EMA20 indicators also say "HODL!" 

so here I am HODL'n my $AVAX bags, ... LIKE A BOSS! 

Avalanche portfolio 2024-05-18 

total net worth: $34,745.94 

total invested: $36,331.69 

total debts: -$40,610.54 / LTV: 60.93% (max 70% LTV) 

ROI: -4.36%