Kujira Krash: some data

Y'all remember when $KUJI was nearly $5-per? ... and was only going up, according to everybody?

That was March 8th of this year. 

It's ... 'funny' (?) how assets on the Kujira blockchain seem to have such a strong correlation?

$MNTA

Why did $MNTA have to follow $KUJI's plummet so d-mn hard? When $KUJI went down, they took more than themselves down with them. 

Data are so interesting. Charts are so interesting. Take the KUJI/MNTA EMA-20 chart.

... anybody wanna hazard a guess as to when the $KUJI-Krash okkur'd?

2024-10-28 Avalanche pivot arbitrage analysis

Today's $AVAX EMA-20 pivot arbitrage analysis, brought to you by ./dawn.  

AVAX/USD

Today, AVAX/USD ratio (blue) is below EMA-20 (gold), indicating a BUY with an 11.46% δ-confidence.

AVAX/QI

The AVAX/QI chart indicates AVAX and QI ratio (blue) and EMA-20 (gold) are at parity. ./dawn recommends HODL.

KART and Kujira-relaunch: lessons learned

Whilst working on my daily portfolio reports, I ran across this bit of research I did.

Remember when I said that $KART was a risky investment, even at 98% discount? And showed my numbers? And was savaged on X?

$KART-buyers: are you okay today?

I feel sad for being right.

And it's not that "Oh! This and that unexpected thing happened! That's why $KART went down! Not your analysis!"

It is that my analysis supported prevailing wisdom: new things break in unexpected ways. That was my point, all along, and the data supports that, across the board.

What I'm sad about being right is that many chose to take my analyses personally, and let their emotions rule their responses to me and their investment-decisions.

New stuff takes time to settle. Please don't be a β tester of a token at launch, no matter how smexy its marketing.

"Oh, but didn't you get burned in the Kujira-crash?"

Yeup. I sure did. And in the Terra-crash, and in the Harmony bridge-hack, and in the $USDC 10%-dip that splat Fantom.

Yeup to all of that.

I learned from those crashes, and honestly and openly share lessons learned.

So: lessons learned.

• Terra has crashed again-again?
• Fantom $FTM is rebranding as $S, ... with how much destruction?
• Harmony is ... 'trying' (?) to recover?

All are much larger chains than Kujira, which is getting how much funding to stand up on a new blockchain, again?

Before considering responding emotionally, remember what my $KART-analysis showed. What was the response? What, actually, occurred?

Dispassionately: is Kujira a viable investment now? Or does it need (a lot of) time to mature?

DYOR. Invest according to your tolerance to risk.

'DYOR': the price of emotional investing

A lot of heat on my TL.

That's a good thing.

If you're incensed with what I've published, is it because I'm wrong?

...or is it because I'm right?

If I'm wrong, share your Big W WINS! and prove me wrong. "geophf, I made X from Y"

If I'm right, learn, h8r. Don't h8.

You know?

So, why is this important?

Not for me, but for you. 😊

If your reaction is "He's wrong!" and you get emotional about it, what is going to happen in the marketplace?

The emotional investor is not in control of their trades and decisions, but is controlled by their emotions.

You can, totally, say: "He's wrong!" How is that useful?

My pop-quiz: I announced it, waited a day for your solutions, none were forthcoming, so I put mine forward for discussion.

Discussion ensued...well, something like it.

Let's eliminate the "He's wrong"-posts and discuss.

The crux of the argument is the starting price. Fair.

But what does that say of your evaluation of the protocol?

I started from the protocols' self-assessed value. Fair, friends.

The counter was the market (or average price sold)-assessed value. Fair.

When you buy stock, you buy into the company. Crypto is different, yes, but the principles in this case are the same.

Are you assessing the companies at the values they assessed themselves to be (the launch price)? Or for much, much less (the average price sold)?

Both assessments have their merits. I presented one assessment: the launch-price assessment.

What is 'average'-price-sold, however? That's a bit more tricky than what's presented at face value, right?

If one (or a few) whales buy, say, 50% of the offering at 96% premium, what is the actual 'average' price that most of the buyers at launch actually paid?

Let's say 88%? That's great! 

Do you win if you claim at 88% premium?

Where's your analysis of actual prices?

To say to me "You're wrong!" for using the launch price...

You can say that, but who came up with the launch price? Me? or the protocol?

Are you saying $KART isn't worth their self-assessed value (launch price)? nor $AQLA? nor $NAMI?

"You're wrong!" is, indeed, saying that.

Remember, folks, you can be right, and I can be wrong, if that needs to happen for you.

I am, after all, just some j-random d00d.

I put up these exercises, aiming for critical thinking.

Does this help you be a more-informed investor? Great!

No? Great!

Do what works for you.

Cryptocurrency pop-quiz: Fair market value $KART based on other Kujira Pilot launches

#cryptocurrency pop-quiz: $KART ... before the horse?

These are the token-sales on @TeamKujira Pilot, their launch price, and their current price:

• $NAMI,21.875¢,2.1651¢
• $WINK,0.5¢,4.5115¢
• $AQLA,25¢,4.438¢
• $BFIT,16¢,0¢

Interesting. 

Here are the charts of those tokens that are traded on @TeamKujira FIN

1. Which tokens increased in value after Pilot launch?
2. What were their ROIs and APRs since launch?

Given the above:

3. What is the fair-(or anticipated-)price of $KART using a-priori analysis?

• (answer)

Structured Data Schemata: don't be an idiot

I eff'n HATE drooling idiots who (don't) create schemata for uniform data-as-JSON from API endpoints.

{ "avalanche-2": { "usd": 31.49 },
   "bitcoin": { "usd":...

Anybody see the problem with this?

Why not:

{ "token-id": "avalanche-2",
  "quote": { "currency": "usd",...

HUH?

When you, the consumer, try to consume the above JSON (the one with VARIANT KEYS?!?!?) in a programatic-fashion?

You're going to have to hack the HELL around trying to define what a key is, BECAUSE THE KEY IS A VALUE, FFS!

Perverting JSON's VERY CLEAR structure is just stupid!

Maybe it's because I have a 25-year background in structured data and knowledge-engineering, but when you define your schema as:

"The key is the name of the token id"

instead of

"The key is 'token-id' because it's an eff'n KEY not an eff'n VALUE!"

Then you're an eff'n idiot.

Remember, kids, there's a difference between:

• metadata, or labels; and,
• data, or values.

If you call yourself a computer scientist, software engineer, or data scientist, you should know this.

And if you don't know this, stop calling yourself what you're not.

Postlude

Now, for my next rant:

Let's talk about people who put compound or composite values into (atomic) cells, so you have to CREATE A PARSER to ingest data FROM A DATABASE?!??? ... when they could have just as easily loaded each atomic value into its own (labeled/typed) cell?

Fun!

Rust pop-quiz: transpose spreadsheet

#Rust / #Elixir pop-quiz

The spreadsheet 'transpose'-function takes a set of rows and transposes them to a set of columns (or vice versa).

Take the SPREADSHEETZORXEN generated by ./cmc:

and output, instead, the single row of token-prices.

• (answer)

2024-05-28 Latest ERIS and Backbone Labs LSD exchange rates

Latest @eris_protocol and @BackBone_Labs LSD exchange rates up for 2024-05-28

 

(currently recorded by hand)

* ampWHALE exchange rate LESS THAN yesterday

** arbWHALE exchange rate same as yesterday

*** ampKUJI exchange rate same last 2 days!

Analyzing these exchange rates over time has shown me some things:

1. @eris_protocol has had daily issues with their exchange rates for two weeks straight.
2. $ampWHALE REVERSED! But $bWHALE did NOT. Is @eris_protocol vetting validators they choose well?
3. Liquid-staking $KUJI, $ROAR, and $WHALE are poor investment choices, but STAKING $ampROAR and $ampWHALE are good choices. This reflects poorly on @eris_protocol but well on @Migaloo_Zone.
4. $arbLUNA is performing WORSE than $ampLUNA? How is that possible? This is not good.

So, @eris_protocol: why are you having consistent problems with your amp-tokens exchange rates? Why is $arbLUNA underperforming $ampLUNA consistently recently? What is your roadmap to address and to rectify these issues?

If you don't fix these issues, I'll withdraw my investment.

"How much $ETH do I have?" a Cryptocurrency pop-quiz

Mappers and Reducers.

Every computation can be expressed as a combination of mappers and reducers, and Big Data™️ leveraged this in a big way, because if you can express everything as mappers and reducers, you can parallelize on each mapper and reducer. 

The functional programming community further shows that every mapping function is a reducer.

map f = reduce (concat . f) []

All computations are reducers.

Therefore: your 1 instruction set computers (OISC)

And if you only need 1 instruction, you need 0 instructions (ZISC)

Okay, let's look at a mapping. We map from

to

with the following formula

map ((1),(k "Cryptocurrency"),(3),(4))

SIMPLE! We don't even need to write a program to do this transformation, as simple spreadsheet formula handle this directly. 

But how do we then reduce the spreadsheet of multiple crypto across multiple blockchains to 'just the crypto, please'-spreadsheet, something like this:

Let's review three approaches to this desired output.

1. One approach is to work within the spreadsheet, itself, using its functions, such as sumif() or dsum().

The problem I have with this approach is that you're using the spreadsheet as a database, and you have to learn these functions, which is learning a new language, really. 

2. Next, you can write a problem in, e.g. Rust, to take on the mappings and reductions.

I'm digging a modular approach here, where you code individual mappers and reducers, and you can plug-n-parallelize to your heart's content. 

3. As I've already codified my Blockaverse portfolio as an ontology, I simply query the ontology and receive a graph as a result.

Dude. 😎

Cryptocurrency pop-quiz

Choose one of the approaches above, or, forge your own path and create your own, then solve the problem of mapping a cryptocurrency portofolio and reducing it to tokens and their USD amounts across the Blockaverse.

DOIT! TOIT! 

• (answer)

Blockaverse portfolio as ontology

"How much liquidity do I have in @TeamKujira Ghost?"

If you upload your portfolio into a (e.g.) @neo4j graph, the question reduces to a graph: 

match (g:Protocol {name: "Ghost"})<-[o:ON]-(t:Token) 

return sum(o.value)

> sum(o.value) = 76.67

./ont sources. 

A generalization is also possible:

"How much liquidity do I have in ALL money markets?"

Simply by overlaying a new graph of "Money Market" Domain over the Blockaverse-graph, the query becomes simple:

match ()-[o:ON]->(p:Protocol)<--(d:Domain { kind: "Money Market"})

You can also look at things from another way:

"How much $ETH do I have? And on which blockchains?"

Another simple query gives you that answer:

match (t:Token { name: "ETH"})-[o:ON]->()-->(b:Blockchain)

return t.name, b.name, sum(o.value)

SPREADSHEETSZORXEN! are great: all my data are archived on SPREADSHEETSZORXEN!

But when I want to gain insights into my data: what am I doing? Where am I doing it? What's working? What's not? I create an ontology-as-graph (./ont) and start querying that knowledge base, visually.

Arbitrum portfolio 2024-05-01

Let's do @arbitrum.

I harvest the yields on @GMX_IO. 

The ARB/ETH-EMA20 is a very soft BUY, so I don't do a trade today.

Arbitrum portfolio 2024-05-01 

total net worth: $3,074.71 

total invested: $2,828.00 

ROI: 8.72% 

Arbitrum portfolio valuation / trade analysis, 2024-05-01

No arbitrage has yet occurred, so trade have had minimal impact.

Terra portfolio report 2024-05-01

Let's do @terra_money.

The ROAR/LUNA-EMA20 says BUY, 

...so I swap 100 $LUNA for $ROAR on @astroport_fi, 

...which gives much more $ROAR than @tfm_com does for the same swap.

The EMA20 indictors for any $LUNA -> { $ASTRO, $ETH, $BTC, $PAXG } are not favorable, so I don't do any other trades today. 

Terra portfolio report 2024-05-01 

net worth $1,896.61 

total invested: $3,007.03 

total debts: $0.00 

losses from Terra-crash: -$30,407.56 

gain/loss: -$1,110.42 

ROI: -36.93% 

Terra Arbitrage 2024-05-01 

incept date: 2024-03-23 

LUNA start: 2267.15 $2,444.21 

ROAR adj: 67437291.83 $419.93 

ASTRO start: 0.00 $0.00 

start: $2,864.14 

LUNA 2312.89 $1,306.65 

ROAR 92884421.30 $261.01 

ASTRO 0.00 $0.00 

total: $1,567.66 

ROI: 25.75% -45.27% 

APR: 241.02% -423.64%