Showing posts with label case study. Show all posts
Showing posts with label case study. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Prism for Kujira: KUJIATOM-THANG!

Observation: somebody's got a pretty sweet setup on LP KUJI-ATOM/KUJI board, trading at 50%, buy or sell.



Question: Can I do better than that?
Answer: The KUJIATOM-THANG! or:

Prism for @TeamKujira 

Setup: I swap my $stATOM -> $ATOM via stATOM/ATOM and stATOM/MNTA.





Somebody (else? ... but probably the same person) has a sweet setup on the LP KUJI-ATOM/ATOM board, again, trading at 50%, buy or sell.



So, I withdraw all my LPs for sale.

I'm going to create a new wallet and move these LPs there.

Experiment: can I grow both $KUJI and $ATOM?

I create the new wallet, ship 10 $KUJI over to there for transaction fees, then ship 29.58 LP KUJI-ATOM tokens or ~100 $KUJI and ~10 $ATOM.





I stake that LP on @TeamKujira BOW.



I'm going to let that LP marinate in the stake for 20 to BUIDL a set of EMA20 measures.

So, how does this work? I measure.

What do I measure?

I need: $KUJI, $ATOM, and LP KUJI-ATOM, amounts and prices to compute values and ratios.

I'll measure each daily, and after 20 days, I'll have the EMA20.


With the EMA20 vs KUJI/ATOM ratio, I program swap decisions.

With the EMA20 vs TVL, I program buy/sell decisions.

Will this work?

I don't know. I think so. That's why this is an experiment.

Let's goooooo!


Friday, February 24, 2023

Why the user-experience matters: a case-study

Equalizer Protocol on Fantom Opera blockchain. A case-study.

Dear @EqualizerFlash,

Why is my position 0 LP when you very clearly stated my LP was staked?



Please fix so it shows the correct staked LP balance.

Thank you.
love, geophf

"Oh, you have 0 balance for rewards" is what the rewards-page is saying to me.

I have opinions.

My opinions are that how the [redacted] do I tell how much stake I have that's applied awards on the rewards page?

I don't. Unless I unstake.

Going to another page? When the rewards page says 0 balance?

STUPID UX design. STUPID!

In UX design you show the positive experience, and, importantly, you DO NOT SHOW A NON-NEGATIVE EXPERIENCE.

This is UX 101, for goodness sake.


It says: "My Position." It should say: "My Stake"

It shows 0 unstaked.
It SHOULD show what IS staked
And MAKE EMERGENT what ISN'T.

ffs

"Oh, but we do show that information on another page. Read our whitepaper."

User-engagement diffuses exponentially to the number of clicks required of them. UX design 101.

You want your user to click ZERO times to get the relevant information.

And if they must read a whitepaper to understand your product, ... I really don't know what to say to that. SURE read the whitepaper to understand the contracts, read the audits. Sure.

But to deposit and earn, I NEED to read your whitepaper?

You've killed your own growth.

I am a business owner. I sell product that makes people's lives better. If somebody asked me: "How much of my money is earning rewards?" And I told them: "You have $0 not earning rewards"?

They should fire me. And I should thank them for it.

Sunday, March 6, 2022

Whales and the Mirror Protocol: a case-study of self-determination

To be a Whale in #cryptocurrency doesn't mean you get your way. Case in point: a whale has floated two proposals on @mirror_protocol to lower collateral ratio to 110% for $mIAU and $mSLV: https://mirrorprotocol.app/#/gov 


Why? What is the angle here?

Gold and Silver are the most stable securities in the world. 


Shorting them is well-nigh guaranteed to be safe. And you make yields on shorted assets on @mirror_protocol.

Two advantages then:

  1. yields 
  2. capital preservation

If I'm a whale, and here's the material point: if I'm anybody, I want to put my investment with the highest return. With a 200% / 150% collateral bracket, for each $2 I put in, only $1 gets the (verra smol) yield. That must be so frustrating, given such a stable position!

So, I, this whale (n.b.: I'm not the whale, btw), put in proposals to rectify this issue. Let's adjust the collaterals down to reasonable levels. And the voters, to a T, agree, but then, what happens?



An even bigger whale, maybe Terra Labs, vetos them. Singlehandedly.

Further, look at the votes on the previous (vetoed) proposals. We, the community, OVERWHELMINGLY voted FOR these proposals.

https://mirrorprotocol.app/#/gov/poll/247
https://mirrorprotocol.app/#/gov/poll/248

It was one, and only one, vetoer that killed these proposal dead, with 4M $MIR. 

Guess.
Who.





What's happening here?

"Is @mirror_protocol decentralized?"

This is the question before us.

We have one whale voting in his self-interest, but fielding a proposal acceptable to the community that gets shut down by centralized control.

We're seeing how 'decentralization' plays out in real time,

Now, I'm not painting this whale as the 'Good Guy' and Terr- oops, the 4M $MIR-owner as the 'Bad Guy,' but I am addressing the question that affects me, and you, and the protocol, and Terra.

"Is @mirror_protocol decentralized?"

These very one-sided vetoes say: no.

Why is this a problem? For everyone?

Terra made a very public statement in its defense a US Gov't suit from the SEC stating it exercises NO control over @mirror_protocol: "@mirror_protocol is decentralized."

The US Gov't can now look at these vetoes and argue otherwise.

So, that's a problem for Terra, but it's a much bigger problem for us, the little guy, not the whale, for us.

Why?

What do our votes mean? We voted FOR. Almost to a person. Overwhelmingly.

The protocol's community voted FOR.

And was shut down.

That wasn't nice.

But if you know me, you know I don't do nice. I do what works, and what works, for me, is that if @mirror_protocol is decentralized, then ALLOW the community to chart the course of the protocol, whatever that course is.

Will we make mistakes? Yes, but how big a mistake is setting collateral for $mIAU and $mSLV? Enough of a mistake to shut down the vote? I don't think so. I think centralized interference is causing more harm than good, to all parties, in this case, and in most cases.

Here's my request, @terra_money. Let decentralization play out. We make a mistake with a vote? LET US make that mistake, and LET US correct it. The dangers of central intervention are clear, AND the disadvantages of decentralization are well-know.

So: let this play out.

Or, if you don't want the community to vote, nor have a say in the vote, stop pretending @mirror_protocol is decentralized, and just lay down the law. Masquerading 'decentralization' makes our votes meaningless and disempowers the community.

And isn't the vision of Terra self-determination via a decentralized currency?

@mirror_protocol is an experiment in self-determination. And this, right here, right now, is what that looks like.

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

How I trade e-coins

So, we have two buy-recommendations ($ETH and $LINK) for today and 1 sell-recommendation ($AMP) that I deem viable, vis-à-vis my portfolio holdings. Let's take a look at the charts. Both $ETH and $LINK have similar 1-day and 1-week charts. Some upward price momentum and buy pressure. 




On the sell-recommendation, $AMP is holding the price (albeit unsteadily), but it does have sell-pressure. 


So, pretending the markets are logical, it makes sense that $ETH and $LINK will rise whereas $AMP may fall or hold steady. I'm converting my $AMP to $ETH and $LINK. 

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

E-coin analysis for 2021-07-20: ADA, LTC, FIL, XTZ, XLM, MIR

First, $ADA. A down-trend with an up-tick at the end. Hm. Are we going to see this all over the place? Anyway: 84% buy-pressure. 

Yup. As I thought, the others mirror the above pattern. The standout is Stellar $XLM which has the most pronounced up-tick.

There are things I need to do here: coinbase has a more-liberal coin-conversion policy, so, I'm going to continue moving assets to coinbase from gemini, except $DOGE (which is paying out at 7.5% staking, and which I'm not converting). This means that I need to continue unstaking coins in gemini, and I also need to complete the work of the exchange-transfer program of my crypto-system.

As for purchasing anything, I am buying $50 of $MIR (recurring weekly purchase), and holding off converting any other coins for now.

Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Buy? Sell? HODL? What to in a #cryptocurrency Bear Market.

So. Am I being stupid?

peanut gallery, in chorus: "YES! YES, YOU ARE BEING STUPID!"
me: thx, fam
peanut gallery, in chorus: "HAPPY TO HELP!"
me: 🙄

Okay, so, am I being stupid? I'm #HODL-ing onto these coins that have downward momentum AND sell-recommendations (GOOD sell-recommendations, we have established).

My first thought was to sell these coins, but there are two problems there.

  1. One problem is I incur tax liability for short-term capital gains on coins that I made out like gang-busters.
  2. Another problem is that I actually lose (fiat) money on coins that made out like ... party-poopers? (is 'party poopers' the opposite of gang-busters?)

So I don't like the idea of selling coins in a bear market for the above reasons.

My second thought was to convert these down-trending coins to coins on the upswing.

Great idea.

In theory.

In practice, the #cryptocurrency market seems to swing in a direction uniformly.

I mean, certainly, there are some coins going up when the #cryptocurrency market is going down, but these coins tend to be fringe: ill-researched and not in my wheelhouse (you see my prejudice here). Buying a fringe-coin is not my modus operandi now.

So, what to do?

That's when today's (2021-07-14) recommendations hit me: two tethered coins, $USDC and $USDT, made the buy-recommendation list. 



Why would I ever consider buying a tethered coin? I wouldn't. Not until now. But let's think about it.

When the market is going down, if I convert my #cryptocurrency to tethered coins, then I capture their worth right at that point. The markets continue to plummet, until they don't, then, at that point, I reenter the markets and recapture the positive momentum of those coins.

Now, some may argue that this is 'timing the market,' and that 'timing the market' gets you burned.

I say: not at all. This is following a trend. It doesn't make sense for me to #HODL on a downward trend: what makes sense is to convert to stable coin then.

Converting to stable coin has two benefits:

  1. it captures the value of the coin that you would lose if you #HODL in a bear market
  2. because you're not converting to fiat currency, it doesn't incur tax liability that you would incur by selling the coin.
This reveals a three-tiered approach to #cryptocurrency.

  1. Buy on a buy-recommended up-trending coin
  2. Convert sell-recommended coins to 1.
  3. In a bear market, convert sell-recommended coins to stable coin to retain value.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

I am using this approach going forward.

Epilogue:

I converted my $1INCH and $COMP holdings to $MANA, based on its upward trend in price (at the time) and associated gaming-token buzz. 



We'll see how this strategy plays out. 

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Stellar XML Buy-recommendation analysis

For the Stellar $XLM RSI buy-recommendation, the 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month trend is downward, so I am holding off buying until I see this trend reverse. 



Saturday, July 10, 2021

Orchid (OXT) Buy-Recommendation Analysis

Is $OXT a good buy? 

... meh

I think I'll start a series of articles called: "Why I'm stupid (so you don't have to be)."

Let's look at $OXT. It's $0.01 below my portfolio average, so less than 3% of a bargain. That's noise, not urgent buy-pressure.

Now, let's look at the 1-week chart from gemini. After spending 'forever' in the doldrums, $OXT perked up, but it looks like a settle-pattern, not a surge-pattern. 

...so, I did buy $OXT (pre-this analysis, not post-), but the third mistake I made was to stake it at 2.47%. If $OXT is going to make money, why not make that money on the surge, then translate that coin to $MIR which has a liquidity pool at ~80% return? 

So. What will I do differently, going forward?

  1. look for significant price difference, vis-à-vis my portfolio.
  2. look for significant upward price trend in the chart.
  3. consider keeping the asset tradable (not staked) for a switch to a more advantageous stake.

Thursday, July 8, 2021

Buy Analysis: $AAVE 2021-07-07

$AAVE is on sale, vis-à-vis my portfolio. Which is odd, because it's now even 'more' on sale today than yesterday when I bought then. Should I buy again? Let's analyze.

I'll just say this: when you buy (in this case, $AAVE) and after a day, it goes way down on a buy-recommendation, that hurts, okay?

But, okay, given that, and, as a momentum investor, what are the charts telling me? Here is the gemini  1-month chart for $AAVE: 

With the one-month chart, we see a slow and steady trend upward. So, that indicates, yes, buy $AAVE, ... but! 

... there is the activity of the last day (highlighted in the cyan circle), and that's where we see the price-drop, even with the TWK indicator green-lighting a buy order. Does this jitteriness indicate $AAVE has peaked? 

The short answer to "Has $AAVE peaked?" is: "I don't know." Who does? But let's take the bird's eye view here, and look at $AAVE's performance over the past year. 
What do we see in the 1-year chart for $AAVE? Well, after peaking at $600, which I did not buy at (thankfully), $AAVE got slammed down hard, and, we see a recent return to its 'normal' price, where, right now, its current price is below its half-year average. 
Does that mean $AAVE 'has' to return to its 'average-..ish'? Of course not. But two factors give me a go-ahead on the buy order: upward momentum(ish) and a price below my portfolio holding.


BUY $AAVE, $100 

Monday, June 28, 2021

Velocity: Stacked chart of $COMP

Here we see a Velocity stacked chart of $COMP supplies, reserves, and borrows using @flipsidecrypto data analytics (implemented by yours, truly). Note that you can scan the chart by bar for each value. You can also view the SQL that generated this chart.  


Velocity: Cryptocurrency Data Analytics Tool

Velocity with @flipsidecrypto allows you to query and visualize $COMP, $LUNA, and $UNI #cryptocurrency. Here are $LUNA transactions 


Thursday, May 30, 2019

Exploring Entities-viewed Graph Data

Let's say you have a graph database of entities viewed in a periodical over a five-month span (here, for example). How do you explore the data? Well, we can explore it visually, traversing node-to-node in the graph, or we can get the results of data analysis in a tabular form, because analysts' bread and butter is the spreadsheet, don't you know. Let's explore both approaches.

I. Visually

Case Study 1: April 2019 entity views

Let's say you want to see the top entities for a particular month. And we just so happen to know in which year that month is that we wish to explore, so that's a plus.

First, we request the year node:

match (y:Year) return y

With that query, you get back the Year node (or nodes).



Select it to view the months of that year:



Ah! I'm really interested in the top entities viewed in April. Let's see what they are. Select the April Month node to view them:





And up pops the entities and their view-counts for April. But note something else. Any entities that have shown up in any other month have the view-counts for those months linked to them, as well. Because those other month-nodes are present in this graph-view, you get those linkages manifested "fo' free!"

Case Study 2: From an Entity's Perspective

Let's now explore the graph from the opposite perspective. That is to say, instead of drilling down from the year to the month to the entities of that month, let's look at the graph starting from an entity. Choosing one, let's go with "donald trump" (because I just so happen to know this entity shows up in more than one month, oddly enough).

Our Cypher query to get a particular entity is:

match (e:Entity { name: "donald trump" }) return e

Executing that query, we get:



And – boom! – there you have it, "donald trump." Let's see the months this entity has been viewed, and the view-counts by month. To expand the entity we select it to get:



Well, how many times has this entity been viewed in total? That is to say, across the entire data set? Well, we can eyeball it and say "eh, more than 12?" and we'd not be wrong.

II. Cypher Queries

Case Study 1: April's Entities as a Spreadsheet

We've already been doing some rudimentary cypher queries to get our starting-point nodes. Let's use Cypher to get our data back in spreadsheet-form, because we all so love spreadsheets!

Let's do a simple enough query, repeating what we already saw, visually, above, and query the entities viewed in April. The Cypher query to return that (sorted) result in tabular form is:

match (e:Entity)<-[c:Count]-(m:Month { month: "April"})
return e.name as name,toInteger(c.count) as count
order by count descending

And we get a nice little spreadsheet back:



And in the upper right-hand corner is an 'export CSV'-button, so you can actually download the data as CSV and import that to your spreadsheet; lolneat!

Case Study 2: Donald Trump's Views

Let's answer the previous question: how many views did the "donald trump"-entity get across the entire duration of the data period? The Cypher query that gets us that information is:

match (e:Entity { name: "donald trump"})<-[c:Count]-()
return e.name as name, sum(toInteger(c.count)) as views

This returns the result of:



So, clocking in at 11,709 views, we were correct in saying the entity "donald trump" has more than 12 views in total.

Case Study 3: All Entities Viewed

Okay, we know the view-counts for the entity "donald trump." Great! How about a query that gives us all the entities viewed, sorted by most viewed first. The Cypher query to do this is:

match (e:Entity)<-[c:Count]-()
return e.name as name, sum(toInteger(c.count)) as views
order by views descending

And the results that query shows us is:



Conclusion

So there you have it! Exploring a graph both visually and by extracting data via a cypher query.