Kujira fall-out: lessons learned?

Huh. Somebody got some free $BTC from me on an ORCA liquidation of $KUJI at 20%. I should've made out, but I didn't.

Somebody got all my $PAXG. Same, and same.

Kujira taught me a lot, and I'm grateful for that.

I just wish I didn't have to learn these lessons so painfully.

2024-05-28 Kujira FIN order books: PnL

Let's do the @TeamKujira FIN, ORCA, ... and now, – PLOT TWIST! – @Manta_DAO DEX trades.

Let's see if ./pnl handles this addition of @Manta_DAO this month gracefully. 

2024-05-28 @TeamKujira PnL Analysis

Number of days traded: 12

Average number of trades/day: 1.92

Average PnL/day: -$2.981

Most active trading day: 2024-05-15 with 4 trades, pnl: $16.259

Most profitable trading day: 2024-05-28 with 2 trades, pnl: $402.941

Least profitable trading day: 2024-05-05 with 1 trades, pnl: -$627.972

Team Kujira assets in play on FIN, 2024-06-01 

total asset value: $44,621.35 

2024-05-28 Kujira FIN pnl vs. trades

Most profitable asset traded: wETH->wstETH for $273.698

Most lossy asset traded: qcMNTA->MNTA for -$627.972

pnl sources.

2024-05-28 @TeamKujira FIN order books: PnL

Profit: $602.105

Loss: $637.880

subtotal: -$35.775

fees: $0.520

commission: $3.234

total costs: $3.754

Total profit (or loss): -$39.529 on 23 trades

average: -$1.719 per trade

3 liquidations at a 0.08% premium (avg)

Analysis

So, I lost ~$30 on @TeamKujira trading May, 2024?

Nupe.

Let's look at the report more closely: https://x.com/logicalgraphs/status/1797024763967107334

See that loss of ~$600 $qcMNTA -> $MNTA?

I GAINED (not lost) 40 $MNTA, ROI: 3%; 8.7% APR

Why the ~$600 loss, then?

I'm using Average Cost Basis for pricing

Using Average Cost Basis, I show a $600-LOSS on that qc->$MNTA trade (that was a gain), COVERING $600 in gains I made in trades elsewhere.

I report a loss to the IRS, while actually making more than $600 this month.

And THAT, my frenz, is why your record-keeping must be SOLID!

ETHBTC trading report, 2024-05-13

Hi! Hi!

I have $wETH and $wstETH liquidations to claim on @TeamKujira ORCA

How much is the worth? How much did I pay for these liquidations?

I don't actually know, but let's figure this out.

The problem with @TeamKujira ORCA is that once you place your bid, ORCA does not report the amount bid for the amount liquidated.

This should be an easy thing to do, but it's not reported on the UX nor in the transaction.

Now, @autokujira DOES report this information, however, it DOESN'T on filled bids that are not yet claimed.

You must first CLAIM the liquidation, THEN look in the history to find your bid. This is a bit odd for me, but it does get me the information, ... only after the claim. 

I claim the liquidated $wstETH.  @autokujira shows that the unclaimed bid is now claimed (it disappears from the active-set), but the claim doesn't show up in the history yet. It appears to take some time for @autokujira to process the claim from the blockchain then file it. Fair

Fortunately, I keep records.

Narrator: Do you now? Where, pray?

ON MY SPREADSHEETSZORXEN!

• 0.059109 $wstETH 4% premium for 188.49 USK
  liquidation price: $3,188.85, market: $3,447.13

• 0.020663 $wETH 3% premium for 56.5218 USK
  liquidation price: $2,735.41, market: $2,956.18

That --^ is a nice, neat little summary. Very tidy.

It took me digging through two months of transactions to compile that report.

So, @TeamKujira: reporting the amount bid for the amount liquidated to claim WOULD BE HELPFUL.

@autokujira: great work; ... just faster, please?

2024-04-30 Kujira ORCA liquidations fulfilled

Let's go through the liquidations fulfilled on @TeamKujira ORCA. There may be a few of them.

Liquidations

DOT

The FRIST! liquidation on @TeamKujira ORCA.

9.4 $DOT for 38.9 $USK, 21% premium

discount quote: $4.14, market price: $6.14

I sell back 7.9 $DOT on Manta, recouping the collateral + 8 $USK, and deposit the remaining 1.4 $DOT on Ghost.

WOOT!

I close my $STARS minting position and rebid for liquidated $DOT.

I think, eventually, I'm going to focus on a few bags, only, instead of whatever liquidations I receive.

KUJI

I claim liquidated $KUJI with $USK, YAY!

For $3.12-per! BOO???

That was a good price, ... at the time, but with $KUJI now $1.67-per, I bought liquidated $KUJI at 200% its current price, which, they say, is no bueno.

$KUJI's not a good liquidation lever, so I cancel these bids.

I withdraw the $KUJI from @TeamKujira Ghost, 

... with the eye of moving it all to my MENSA addy for pivot arbitrage, as arbitrating $KUJI with a pivot is much more profitable for me. 

A bright light shineth, as a bid with $xPAXG.grv got me $KUJI at a 20% premium, or $KUJI at $1.08-per against a market price of $1.67.

Not much $KUJI, but that's okay, because the $PAXG.grv grew by Ghost's lending rate (the 'x-factor'). 

ROI: 24.13%; 187.42% APR

I turn right back around and swap that $KUJI back to PAXG.grv on Manta, ... essentially, this becomes an arb of $PAXG.grv

0.009 -> 0.0144 $PAXG.grv

... using liquidated $KUJI on ORCA as the pivot.

ROI: 50%, thankyousoverymuch. 😎🎉🎉🎉

LUNA

Okay, $LUNA. I claim liquidated $LUNA from $USK, however, at twice (today's) market price. Ugh. 

9.7 $LUNA for 8.9 $USK, 'discount' price 92¢,

market price 54.6¢ 

ROI: -41.94%; -325.73% APR

I'd be sad, paying double-price for $LUNA, but ... 

BUT! I claimed 114 $KUJI from 308 $xLUNA, this gives a discounted price for $KUJI to be $1.53 which is better than the market price of $1.67.

ROI: 8.05%; 52.48% APR

So! A gain arbitrating $KUJI with $xLUNA via ORCA liquidation bids.

Cool! 

I also claim 50+ $LUNA from 30 $xUSDC.axl on @TeamKujira ORCA. 

14% premium, 'discounted' quote: 63¢, market price 54.6¢

ROI: -14.04%; -63.26% APR

Still pricey. ☹️ 

MNTA

Next, $MNTA. I bid on liquidated $MNTA with $xUSDC.axl, and I got it, all right!

'discounted' quote: 70¢, market price: 31.8¢,

4% premium.

ROI: -55.42%; -430.41% APR

Bidding on liquidations with stables doesn't work out so well when volatile tokens are in free-fall. 🙄

I also withdraw my $MNTA from Ghost.

There's nothing to bid $xMNTA with on ORCA, anyway, and I'm better at arbitrating $MNTA on my MENSA addy with a pivot.

STARS

Meh.

Even a 27% premium did not protect my bid from the $STARS price-plummet.

Which is hilarious, as my $100 $STARS minting position wasn't liquidated, but my $1,500 $DOT minting position was.

Ouch. 

I lend ALLES teh $STARS to @TeamKujira Ghost, then bid $USK with that lent $STARS.

So, when $STARS go back up, I'm rich, OR when a liquidation occurs, I'll get $USK at ~30% premium.

Either way: cool beans! 😊

PAXG

I turn right back around and swap that $KUJI back to PAXG.grv on Manta, ... essentially, this becomes an arb of $PAXG.grv

0.009 -> 0.0144 $PAXG.grv

... using liquidated $KUJI on ORCA as the pivot.

ROI: 50%, thankyousoverymuch. 😎🎉🎉🎉

Then I do all the $PAXG.grv things on @TeamKujira ORCA and Ghost: claiming liquidated $PAXG.grv on ORCA, lending it on Ghost, then bidding on liquidated $KUJI with that lent $PAXG.grv. 

Oh, and #PSA: remember to activate your bids on @TeamKujira ORCA, as they no longer automatically activate, no matter if you select "automatically activate my bids with Sea Shanty" or not.

They just don't. So: activate your bids, or you get nothing, ever! 😤

ATOM

Not good news. 

4 $ATOM from 45 $USK with the market price of $ATOM being $8-per now. Ick.

Fortunately, the market is cleared up to 9%, but we are no longer in alt-crypto Spring anymore, it appears. ☹️

ROI: -20.92%; -144.10% APR

OTOH, I do bid for liquidated $stATOM with $xKUJI, 

... a 30% premium for 7.5 $stATOM? Sure. Why not! 

Another meh-liquidation-claim of $ATOM from an $xUSDC.axl bid on @TeamKujira ORCA.

ROI: -6.90%; -30.71% APR

People are just too reckless with their $USK minting positions and they get liquidated at the slightest breeze in the air.

This is no good for me if the price plummets.

More $(st)ATOM; more meh.

3.2 $stATOM for 46 $USK, 'discount' price $13-per, but market price is $11.18, 3% premium.

Again, the premiums are now cleared up to 10%, but little did that help me with this liquidation fulfillment. 

ROI: -17.48%; -120.38% APR

ORCA was supposed to be the market-downturn-protection-tool, making money when the markets tank.

This 🧵is showing the opposite: that during a bad bear, I can lose money on fulfilled liquidations.

Not stunningly happy with this news.

I'm taking a hard look at my ORCA-strategy.

Bed-time!

Okay, folks! I'm not done with the @TeamKujira ORCA liquidations: I still have more than several fulfilled liquidations to claim, BUT! It's time for this guy to fly to my beddy-bye!

BYE! 😴

ORCA liquidations, 7-days trailing, 2024-04-30

By Market

 

Top 5 liquidations on @TeamKujira ORCA by Market ($) for 7-days trailing 2024-04-30

 

 

1. USK->wFTM for $1818.379
2. USK->stOSMO for $1686.924
3. USK->STARS for $1429.062
4. xUSDC->MNTA for $139.782
5. USK->wBTC for $121.230

Raw CSV of report

By Bid

 

Top 4 liquidations on @TeamKujira ORCA by Bid ($) for 7-days trailing 2024-04-30

 

1. USK for $5402.062
2. xUSDC for $139.782
3. xUSDC.axl for $3.234
4. xUSK for $0.129

By Asset

 

Top 5 liquidations on @TeamKujira ORCA by Asset ($) for 7-days trailing 2024-04-30

 

 

1. wFTM for $1818.379
2. stOSMO for $1686.924
3. STARS for $1429.062
4. MNTA for $202.645
5. wBTC for $121.230