Friday, June 14, 2024

'DYOR': the price of emotional investing

A lot of heat on my TL.

That's a good thing.

If you're incensed with what I've published, is it because I'm wrong?

...or is it because I'm right?

If I'm wrong, share your Big W WINS! and prove me wrong. "geophf, I made X from Y"

If I'm right, learn, h8r. Don't h8.

You know?

So, why is this important?

Not for me, but for you. 😊

If your reaction is "He's wrong!" and you get emotional about it, what is going to happen in the marketplace?

The emotional investor is not in control of their trades and decisions, but is controlled by their emotions.

You can, totally, say: "He's wrong!" How is that useful?

My pop-quiz: I announced it, waited a day for your solutions, none were forthcoming, so I put mine forward for discussion.

Discussion ensued...well, something like it.

Let's eliminate the "He's wrong"-posts and discuss.

The crux of the argument is the starting price. Fair.

But what does that say of your evaluation of the protocol?

I started from the protocols' self-assessed value. Fair, friends.

The counter was the market (or average price sold)-assessed value. Fair.

When you buy stock, you buy into the company. Crypto is different, yes, but the principles in this case are the same.

Are you assessing the companies at the values they assessed themselves to be (the launch price)? Or for much, much less (the average price sold)?

Both assessments have their merits. I presented one assessment: the launch-price assessment.

What is 'average'-price-sold, however? That's a bit more tricky than what's presented at face value, right?

If one (or a few) whales buy, say, 50% of the offering at 96% premium, what is the actual 'average' price that most of the buyers at launch actually paid?



Let's say 88%? That's great! 

Do you win if you claim at 88% premium?

Where's your analysis of actual prices?

To say to me "You're wrong!" for using the launch price...

You can say that, but who came up with the launch price? Me? or the protocol?

Are you saying $KART isn't worth their self-assessed value (launch price)? nor $AQLA? nor $NAMI?

"You're wrong!" is, indeed, saying that.

Remember, folks, you can be right, and I can be wrong, if that needs to happen for you.

I am, after all, just some j-random d00d.

I put up these exercises, aiming for critical thinking.

Does this help you be a more-informed investor? Great!

No? Great!

Do what works for you.

No comments:

Post a Comment