Tuesday, July 27, 2021

How I trade coins

Okay, you've received a set of buy- and sell- recommendations from your e-coin report, say for 2021-07-26. When you have the budget, you simply buy the good-looking recommendations (and sell the sell-looking ones? Maybe, ... maybe not. I'm for not realizing fiat gains, and translating sell-coins to buy-coins. See below).

But what if you don't have any more fiat currency budgeted, or what if you have some coin to sell. What to buy?

Well, if there's nothing to buy, then buy stable coin to lock in the sell-coin's results.

If there are coins to buy, see which one, or which ones we want to buy, first. Let's do that. For the 2021-07-26 recommendations, I've highlighted $ETH, $BNB, $DOGE, $LTC, $LINK, $XTZ, and $MIR as possible buy-candidates, and $AMP is a sell-candidate (although there may be others, and we'll get to those when we analyze our portfolio holdings).

Okay: $BNB and $DOGE are special. They are the only holdings in binance and gemini, respectively, so I'm not going to trade coins in another portfolio to transfer then trade them on their home-portfolios. Not today, anyway.

$MIR, too, is special for the reason that it is staked on the terra network. However, since I buy all my $MIR on coinbase, it's now fair-game. I buy it on coinbase, then bridge it over to terra. $MIR is not so special, after all.

So, for potential buys, we have $ETH, $LTC, $LINK, $XTZ, and $MIR. For a potential sell (so far) we have $AMP. Let's look at these charts.

$ETH

$ETH has good 1-week upward momentum and current buy pressure.

$LTC


$LTC, same 


... however, it seems to have settled for today after a morning surge. ETH is doing better so far.

$LINK


$LINK has 1-week upward momentum and buy pressure, and continues to rise throughout the day.

$XTZ 


$XTZ has good upward momentum this past week, ... 



... but its current activity is a little rocky, with no clear trend.

$MIR 


$MIR has an upward trend over the week, yes, but, like $LTC, the day's trend is flat. Also, it has stronger sell-than-buy pressure. 



$AMP (for selling) 


What in the world is this chart? 


Okay, those were the coins that were explicitly called out from the recommendation-engine. Now, let's look at our portfolio. 


I've highlighted coins that 

  1. don't have a buy-recommendation (on the supposition that the price will rise)
  2. do have a sell-recommendation: $AMP
  3. have a net-gain investment over current value.
What does that give us? $AMP, which we have the charts for, and: $UNI, $MATIC, $MKR, and $SUSHI. Let's look at these.

$UNI 


$UNI has a good rise over the week, but now has sell-pressure. The daily picture doesn't have an upward price trend, but, in fact, is showing a sell-off:



$MATIC 


$MATIC is riding the one-week wave-gain, but also has sell-pressure. The daily chart is showing a sell-off: 


So, is selling $MATIC a good idea? Sure. But to translate it into which coin?

$SUSHI 


$SUSHI's one week price-trend is meandering downward. Good sell opportunity.

... and, finally, $MKR: 


$MKR has been doing well, but it's 1-day chart is showing a sell-off, with the early-day gains being eaten away (ouch): 



So, all four are good candidates to convert to ... $ETH? Should we convert to $ETH?

Well, from the above $ETH-chart, $ETH is the clear leader, so: CONVERT TO $ETH!

That would've been my conclusion.

But now today is tomorrow. How is $ETH doing today?

$ETH 2021-07-27


Hm, there is buy-pressure for $ETH, but only later in the day. If I had converted yesterday, I would have slid down the price-drop and not have recovered. The question is: did the other coins do exactly this? If they did, then a conversion wouldn't actually be a lost (because they would've lost the same, too), but the conversion would also be redundant. Let's see.

$AMP 2021-07-27 

$AMP also dropped, but dropped 11% verses $ETH's 5% drop, and $AMP has sell-pressure today, verses $ETH's buy pressure. So, if I followed yesterday's recommendation and converted $AMP to $ETH I would have lost 5% less. Not the most encouraging news, but that's what the chart for $ETH indicated. What would have been even better (in hindsight) is for me to have converted $AMP to stable coin, locking in the gains it had made. I did nothing, however, and lost like everybody else who HODL'd through this market drop.

CONCLUSION

eh.

But maybe there will be other opportunities.

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