2022-12-01 Trade: 200 KUJI

Let's enqueue ('enqueue') the next trade: $KUJI

./vern recommends via ATOM / OSMO, a low volume order book...

So, I asked ./vern to reroute around that ATOM / OSMO order book, and I got the following path:

The resulting gantt chart (which I generated by hand, let's not do that again, which I'm not: I'm now auto-generating gantt-charts with ./gantt) is as follows:

The source for that gantt chart is here.

You see the reroute is very much longer. So, which way do I choose?

I choose both, of course.

I'll start with the KUJI / ATOM order, but double the amount, then split when I reach the fork.

OOH! This'll be fun!

• 2022-12-01 (EM's 21st birthday): placed 200 KUJI -> 11.54 ATOM, SELL at 0.0577 fulfilled

• KUJI,axlUSDC,OSMO,(axlUSDC,USK,KUJI),ATOM,USK,KUJI
• 2022-12-03 placed: 5.77 $ATOM -> 59.0963 $axlUSDC, SELL at 10.242 fulfilled
• 2022-12-03 placed: 59.0963 $axlUSDC -> _ $USK, SELL at 0.9949 retracted
• ABANDONED: 10% loss forecast.
• KUJI,ATOM,OSMO,ATOM,axlUSDC,KUJI
• 2022-12-03 placed: 5.77 $ATOM -> 60.0599 $OSMO, SELL at 10.409 fulfilled
• 2022-12-03 placed: 60.0 $OSMO -> _ $ATOM, BUY at 10.063 retracted
• ABANDONED: 15% loss forecast.

Okay. I'm in an interesting place right now.

My 100 KUJI -> KUJI arb went stale. I'm stuck with OSMO that will trade, eventually, to 86 $KUJI, according to ./vern, my main man, ./vern.

So: wat do?

I'm abandoning this trade. Maybe the winds that blew $OSMO down will puff it up?

The moral of this story is: I don't have to follow an arb to the bitter end, particularly this one where it ends up at a significant loss.

The sooner one recognizes a loss, and stops, the less damage will result.

I lost this one. I'm not happy about that. But I'll win others.

Result

2022-12-06: ABANDONED with losses between 10-15% forecast.