ETHBTC, 2023-06-20

Let's do the ETHBTC-THANG!

After entering the price-quotes of $BTC and $ETH from @osmosiszone, my SPREADSHEETSZORXEN! sez:

• swap 0.0153 $BTC

So, let's do that! 

I do the ETHBTC-thang!

There should be no surprises by now, eh?

• I withdraw 0.0153 $BTC from @TeamKujira Ghost lend

• I bridge the $BTC to @osmosiszone via Satellite

• I swap $BTC to $ETH on @osmosiszone 

• I bridge back the $ETH to @TeamKujira using IBC

Efficacy Analysis

I've been doing this for a wee bit, so, let's ask the question: is the ETHBTC-thang! working? And how can we know if it is?

The analysis is straightforward.

ETH-arb-side analysis

As the amounts of both $BTC and $ETH vary, let's see when $BTC is the same. Does the amount of $ETH change? If so, by how much?

The answer:

When $BTC is 0.1269-...ish, δ $ETH is POSITIVE 0.9219.

in 21 days.

ROI: 50%, annualized to 882% APR!!

What does the above (PT) analysis mean?

It means that simply by trading daily on the ETHBTC ratio-vs-EMA-20, I 'manifested' 0.92 $ETH, ... out of thin air.

😱😱😱

You can pack your bags and get out of town; I just don't care.

BTC-arb-side Analysis

Okay, it works on the $ETH-arb-side, how about on the $BTC-arb-side?

When $ETH is constant at 1.815-...ish, δ $BTC is...

0.0129

in 20 days.

ROI: 10%, annualized to 186% APR

It means same thing: I 'created' 0.0129 $BTC, simply by trading the ETHBTC ratio-vs.-the-EMA-20.

Wow!

To be quite fair, these analyses are premature and too overly encouraging, – they are not to be relied upon! – but! they do show a promising direction with this ETHBTC-THANG!

I will continue this experiment, and continue measuring as I go.

So, now I have 0.23 $ETH on @TeamKujira. WAT DO?

I put this liquidity to work. I mint 100 $USK from the $ETH on BLUE, then I place that $USK on FIN axlUSDC/USK as a buy-order.

This is the 無 arb (HOWTO)

I track my trades on the Trades-page.

As you see, I'm 無 arb'n $ETH quite a bit. That's totally fine by me: as the axlUSDC/USK ratio varies, I will make quite a bit back in $ETH as it's freed from collateral as I repay these $USK mints.