2022-12-06 arbitration: 10 ATOM

The first recommendation is the $ATOM-arb.

Right out of the chute, it recommends ATOM/OSMO, but that order book iz ded tonight, so I requested a reroute, and a reroute is what I got!

• ATOM,(USK,KUJI,ATOM,axlUSDC),OSMO,axlUSDC,USK,KUJI,ATOM

This is a complicated route, but I know from experience, and you should know now, too, that routes change over time.

This a good plan today, so: we execute.

... but I need 10 $ATOM to arb 10 $ATOM. So I'll buy some, first:

• 2022-12-06 placed: 25 USK -> 2.663 ATOM, BUY at 9.388 fulfilled

Meanwhile, it looks like $ATOM is having a fire-sale, ...

... GOOD THING I NEVER PUT ATOM UP AS COLLATERAL TO MINT USK AND SO GET LIQUIDATED JUST NOW! 😤

sheesh.

I'm getting cheap ATOM on the order books.

So I guess I don't understand ORCA now, in that light.

I get an updated trade path from ./vern, my main man, ./vern, which is quite simpler than the one previously suggested:

• ATOM,USK,axlUSDC,KUJI,ATOM

... have Mr. ./gantt do his thing, then I place the order

• 2022-12-07 placed: 10 ATOM -> 90.342 USK, SELL at 9.041 fulfilled

which is immediately filled, so I place the next order.

• 2022-12-07 placed: 90.342 USK -> 152.3474 KUJI, BUY at 0.593 fulfilled 

... which is immediately filled, so I bring it home with the last order:

• 2022-12-07 placed: 152.3474 KUJI -> _ ATOM, SELL at 0.0669 retracted

You see how this all works? It has a cadence to it, yes?

KUJI/ATOM, I'm stuck on a sale here. But should I even be here? Let's ask ./vern, my main man, ./vern.

./vern sez: KUJI,axlUSDC,OSMO,ATOM

So I retract my previous order and place the following one:

• 2022-12-07 placed: 152.3474 KUJI -> 93.6936 axlUSDC, sell at 0.615 fulfilled

Of course, I just realized I canceled the final order to close that trade-path, but, hey, it was stuck, so maybe the more circuitous route will be ... faster? more profitable?

I'll keep my eye out for exiting this path gracefully.

Okay, the next order (top fulfilled one) hit.

What does ./vern, my main man, ./vern say?

Ugh. everything is going through the ATOM/OSMO order book.

Let's see if I can work around this book.

./vern?

./vern suggests: axlUSDC,USK,KUJI,ATOM

Let's try that.

• 2022-12-07 placed: 93.6936 axlUSDC -> 89.9927 USK, SELL at 0.9605 fulfilled

Okay, welcome back to @TeamKujira blockchain. The next trade in my $ATOM-arb pops, so let's check where we are with that arb. 

./vern, my main man, ./vern says no matter the path the arb fails with a loss of 0.2 $ATOM.

Okay.

So. What is a winning scenario? The ATOM/USK order book says that if $ATOM falls below $8.86, the arb works just fine.

That gives me 2 courses of action. I can set the buy-order now, and lock the $USK, or, I can see how the rest of the marketplace looks, with an eye for using the $USK if there's a more profitable line to pursue.

We'll revisit this arb after we tour the rest of the marketplace.